the Software Industry and its malaise

First Quarter results of the companies are coming out. While TCS reported the strongest result of all the biggies of India, others did not fare too badly. Infy's and Wipro's results may be a bit disappointing for their shareholders, but it is still not something to be alarmed about.  Irrespective of the results, all have expressed high confidence in the long term growth of the sector and the prospect for their organization, although hardly there were any mention about their future growth engines. If there is anything, there is a mention of cost rationalization in Wipro executive's statement: "We have improved our people pyramid cost. Our margins have expanded by 60 basis points because of the higher proportion of freshers." With consistent downward pressure on outsourcing pricing, it is only rational that cost of service must be brought down to maintain profitability margin. And Wipro is not alone there. Almost all Indian medium and large software companies have adopted this method of cost reduction i.e. by increasing the share of freshers and junior practitioners in its employee-base. The trend is not limited to service-based profit centres like Wipro, Infy, the trend is equally strong with Indian cost centres of large software MNCs. A casual scan on all job portals will tell you that demand, wherever there is, is almost always in 0-8 years experience bracket.
So what happens to not-so-junior practitioners? That's a question, both media and company executives would like you to not ask, which gives a perfect alibi to talk about in this blog.

Big Fame of software Industry and its blindside

Software Industry got its fame particularly on couple of accounts:

1. Spectacular company growth and
2. Spectacular increase in salary during boom time.

First one brought a lot of eager shareholders and fans and second one brought many people fresh out of college opting to join the IT industry. In US, there was another very strong incentive, possibility of a startup company making big and its employees retiring rich on its shares at young age.  Retire by 40 was the catchline, not too long ago. In India, since successful startups hardly come by, one incentive that worked for it was 'assignment abroad'. However none, if you look closely, actually are about structural strength of the industry. If one compares the industry with other engineering industries [with an obvious exception to Financial Engineering Industry], there is a stark difference. In those companies a typical growth incentive was to participate and contribute to large and complex engineering projects and thereby make one's mark in the Industry. Credibility and market value of a firm in those Industries were expected to grow only when the firm brings out better products, executes engineering-wise ambitious projects. That was good incentive to retain experiences and knowledgeable people. In Software Industry, it is generally accepted that technology changes lot faster. So organizations need people nimble and adaptable enough, who can learn fast and deliver faster. It is also commonly accepted that younger people are more adaptable and faster than older colleagues. Naturally software firms tend to bias towards younger lot. Most of the companies prefer average age to be closer or below 30.That needless to mention, helps the company in keeping the cost down. The tagline is bring more people at the bottom of the pyramid and flatten/trim the middle layers of the pyramid as much as possible. Net effect, as engineers become senior they become more vulnerable to be replaced by younger ones. If you are thinking this is only true for Indian software Industry, think again!
A recent article in Bloomberg talks about how software professional in US are vulnerable to lose job as they approach 40. The article argues that unlike legal, medical or educational profession, software engineers tend to be less desirable as they age.  The article observes,"even if the 45-year-old programmer making $120,000 has the right skills,“companies would rather hire the younger workers.”  To add to their woes, the article reports, there are young engineers from India with H1-B visa who are cheaper and easily available to American companies. The author clearly is unaware that same treatment is meted to experienced professionals in India.
'So what?', you may ask, 'if the industry prefers younger population, as long as the Industry grows? It is not that all the people above 40 are getting laid off!'
Absolutely! But is the Industry really growing? If the industry really could grow as it used to be there won't be any need to remove people. And secondly what happens when one trades experience with cost?
Let's look at each question carefully.
If we look at the results from Indian software vendors, it is fairly evident that they are struggling to maintain even low double-digit growth rate [previously average rate of growth used to be 35%] and if we follow closely executives' discourse, it is clear that they are focussing more on pushing the bottomline in order to improve profitability. Above 95% utilization of existing resources and reducing average cost/resources figure prominently in strategy-speak. Even a college kid understands that only when the topline projection flattens, people get forced to find ways to push the bottom-line further. If this is true for Indian Software vendors, let's look at IBM. One blogger observes that IBM's strategy to improve EPS [Earning/share] in next 3-4 years hinges upon reducing cost of their work-force. One may argue that it is in tune with global macro-economic scenario; if the global economy is in tatters, software industry cannot escape from that. While that statement is generally believed to be true, one cannot miss that Apple also became enormous during this time. It is those software firms that primarily look at cost arbritage for software development as the primary determinant, are particularly finding growth as challenge and that covers majority of the known software houses.
Coming to the next question, let's look at the effect of reducing senior people from rosters. Long-time customers [e.g. Walt Disney] are walking away from companies like IBM because they do not find the quality and timeliness as they used to get from IBM earlier. Many attribute that to large segment of young relatively inexperienced work-force who fill the botttom rank of IBM's cost pyramid. You can bet that other software vendors face similar challenges. Customers often complain about skill and experience inadequacies in the vendors' resources and relatively  poor (technically speaking) fixes or long fixing time for a customer issue. There is overwhelming belief in many of the software companies that Quality processes adequately take care of loss of experience. Those who have seen it from close quarter, know well that it is cultivated myth. Fact is impact of loss of experience never seriously mattered to those who matter in these firms. It is not much of surprise that Sofware engineering fares lot worse compared to other engineering stream when it comes to long-term quality [durability, scalability, maintenability] or execution success rate. Standish Chaos 2009 report showed only 32% success rate for software projects. Dr. Dobbs journal who question methodology of Standish Chaos report, report for 2010 from their own survey

Ad-hoc projects: 49% are successful, 37% are challenged, and 14% are failures.

Iterative projects: 61% are successful, 28% are challenged, and 11% are failures.

Agile projects: 60% are successful, 28% are challenged, and 12% are failures.

Traditional projects: 47% are successful, 36% are challenged, and 17% are failures.

Irrespective of which side you are, it is not a pretty picture, even though you may question about sampling universe. Any other engineering stream report lot better statistics.

So what is it really?

One can blame on many things for that bad score, like poor requirement definition or poor change tracking or poor project execution, but chances of getting it right is low. Fact is software Industry is not going to be like any other Industry. Most of the software projects, successful or not, very rarely finish the way they were envisaged in the beginning. Understanding what is to be developed, many times build up gradually. Because of this reason, the cost of repairing an error is less of a consideration in determining 'success' of a project, which for any other engineering trade, constitutes one of the primary metrics. That translates to real lack of motivation for creating objective measure of cost of losing experience and skill depth but there are both carrots and sticks to reduce the project expenses. Company managers take this advantage by stressing (quite mechanically at times) on following process at the cost of prople but that hardly solves the issue, as the scorecard shows. Quoting Steve Jobs [source], "Companies get confused, when they start getting bigger they want to replicate their initial success and a lot of them think well somehow there is some magic in the process of how that success was created so they start to try to institutionalize process across the company. And before very long people get very confused that the process is the content.” The managers forget that process is not the end goal but the product is and it is peeople who develop the product and more experienced a person is better is his output quality. Following process can be easily monitored but hardly that guarantees great product. In other words, one can keep expanding the base of pyramid but that will never give a company run-away success or high double digit growth. Having the right vision for the product/solution for the customers, getting the right people who know how to develop product and retaining them are critical for that. That needs inspriring leadership, creative passion for the products/vision, skill depth and experience which the organizations trade for lower expense today. As long as the executives are measured against the numbers but not the creative forces that they unleashed in the organization, it is very unlikely that the present scenario of the Industry will change. 

Finally India figures in 4G map

Yesterday, Airtel launched 4G service in Calcutta, first time in India. When I wrote my post, "will India leapfrog to 4G?" few months back, little did I imagine that it will be so soon, although it definitely gives a sense of pleasure to see it coming in real. Airtel picked the TDD-LTE as the technology and ZTE, China as its technology partner. With Airtel already adopting it, we can expect Reliance to follow the suit some time this year. That would make LTE-TDD the technology of choice for 4G in entire south Asia with China taking the lead. It also looks like that China's dominance in 4G technology space will be complete. Why Airtel chose ZTE:

• ZTE says it is a leader in developing LTE technologies and has applied for 381 essential patents (EPs) for LTE standards, which account for approximately seven percent of the total number of EP applications globally.
• ZTE has won 30 contracts for LTE commercial application and has deployed test networks in cooperation with more than 100 operators across the globe.
• To date, ZTE has signed three contracts related to deploying and upgrading 3.5GHz TDD-LTE networks in Asia-Pacific and Africa.
• ZTE is a major global vendor driving the use of 3.5GHz and 3.6GHz bands. The use of these bands has now been approved as an industry standard by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project.
• ZTE also has helped operators like Japan's Softbank, Sweden's Hi3G and China Mobile successfully deploy TD-LTE networks.
• and ZTE is dedicated to becoming the world's No. 1 TDD-LTE brand. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), ZTE filed for the most PCT patents of any company worldwide in 2011 with 2,826 filings.

Sounds great! Since the number of 4G handsets available in India is quite low at the moment, Airtel is launching dongles (made by ZTE) with the SIM cards built in. The tariff also looks quite reasonable compared to existing ADSL+ or 3G broadband rate. Presently they have three plans:

plan name	rentals (per month-INR)	free quota (GB)	speed post FUP (kbps)
breakfree	999	6	128
breakfree max	1399	9	128
breakfree ultra	1999	18	128

Airtel says they would be starting pan-indian broadband service soon. Although theoretical limit for 4G service is 100 Mbps [download] and 40 Mbps [upload], one cannot reasonably expect that speed with Airtel at present; 128kbps for that matter is a good starting point.

What made Airtel launch the service so early? It appears that world, primarily led by Chinese technology developers, are moving for fast 4G adoption. This Financial report article said that China telecom has decided to accelerate its 4G deployment. Deployment also became more cost-effective with average cost coming down to $10K for converting a 3G Base Station to 4G Base station. China telecom has invested most of all the telecom operators on 4G trial so far. They have good reason to accelerate the 4G deployment. But it appears that many countries will be in 4G map before this year ends. Srilanka already is, for example. While European and US operators may be slow with 4G deployment GSA expects that south asia will drive the 4G deployment this year. As per their latest reports there are 300 operators invested in 4G and 347 LTE User devices launched by 63 vendors.

While Network side deployment is going on full-swing, one area that concerns the market is there are not many 4G handsets available. Handset technology is little more tricky since it involves voice, video telephony and roaming over 4G and probably 3G and standardization effort continues to be an ongoing process. However all existing handset leaders are gearing up to launch 4G-enabled smartphone sometime this year looking at both China and India as the major market segment. In fact there is already news  that Apple's iPhone 5 as well as new iPad will support LTE-TDD.

Overall, it looks like, 2012 will be a very exciting year for high-speed mobile telephony and Indian consumers are not going to be left behind.

In case anyone is interested, 4G World Asia is scheduled on 21st May in Singapore

Hampi (15th century Vijayanagara) in winter

 "Sir, Hotel?" I saw a young man in jeans walking towards me.

"My name is Shiva. You want to go to Hampi, don't you, Sir? I can provide you Auto, Car at a very reasonable rate."
It was early morning and I was standing on the railway platform of Hospet. We reached only couple of minutes back and I was trying to understand how much the place changed in last 13 years, since I visited last time.  "How much would Auto cost me?", I asked. He said two hundred and we finally settled for Rs. 180 for a drop to Karnataka Tourism Hotel at Kamalapur, Hampi. Hampi, perhaps, is the most popular and most highlighted historical tourism place in Karnataka. But beside the historical ruins, one aspect that is rarely spoken about it is that it is also a famous pilgrimage spot for Hindus and also figures prominently in the must-visit list of spiritual seekers, particularly those travelling from Europe.

Vittala Temple, broken portion is visible

Closer look at the musical pillars (undecorated ones)
 in Vittala Temple

Terracotta on the Gopuram: Vittala temple

 Historically Hampi is the erstwhile capital of  14th-16th century Vijayanagara empire and is situated at the south bank of Tungabhadra. Archiologists tell us that Hampi existed as densely populated place for many centuries before  Harihara Raya I and Bukka Raya I founded Vijayanagar empire and adopted Hampi as its capital. Chronologically Vijayanagar empire comes after Hoysala dynasty who ruled almost entire Karnataka from 11th till the early 14th century. 
Multiple dynasties were associated Vijayanagara empire. Sangama dynasty that founded the empire ruled till late 15th century, Saluve dynasty started by Saluva Narasimha Deva Raya ruled for next twenty years till Tuluva dynasty came strong with Tuluva Narasa Nayaka. Tuluva dyansty ruled for next 80 years and Vijayanagara empire prospered most under Krishnadevaraya. It is said that Vijayanagara emire reached its peak during this time. Many of the glorious monuments in present Hampi ruins including the most spectacular Vittala temple were built during the rule of Krishnadevaraya. After Krishnadevaraya, it took just another thirty years before the empire crashed to its ruins. The sudden capture and killing of Aliya Rama Raya in 1565 at the Battle of Talikota, against an alliance of the Deccan sultanates, after a seemingly easy victory for the Vijayanagara armies, created havoc and confusion in the Vijayanagara ranks, which were then completely routed. The Sultanates' army later plundered Hampi and reduced it to the ruinous state in which it remains at present; it was never re-occupied [source]
The famous Ruins

Stone Chariot in front of Vittala Temple

 The first spot that people head towards is the famous Vittala Temple, built in dravidian vimana style where alongwith coarse-grains granite, bricks and terracota are also used. Different granite materials were used to build the musical pillars each of which used to resonate to different note of musical octave when the hall was commissioned. Many of them are broken [the main sanctum is already in dilapidated condition] since I came here last time and surviving pillars, quite justifiably, are not allowed to be touched by the visitors. Terracotta are used to create smooth-surfaced figurines and ornamental design on the top of the Gopurams, lot of which are already broken. The stone pillars in the temple are carved separately and fixed in place later. Each of them is richly engraved following both the Chola and Hoysala tradition. The iconic stone chariot in front of the main temple, if one carefully observes, did not have the elephants originally. Perhaps after the original horses and staircase got broken, very likely during army invasion, elephants were brought from somewhere and placed there. It still looks regal in front of the Vittala temple.This chariot is adopted as the symbol of Karnataka Tourism.

Lotus Mahal

Krishna Temple near King's Court

 While the stone chariot, Musical pillars and gorgeous stone engraving of Vittala temple are much-spoken-about [Govt of Karnataka even has a special arrangement where the special night lighting is turned on for eclectic audience and one must admit that the temple and entire area look almost surreal under the night light. The lights are turned on during Govt-sponsored Hampi Utsav or when the Karnataka Golden Chariot train reaches Hampi], Krishna Temple and Lotus Mahal also demand your attention for their exquisiteness of craftsmanship, ingenious mix of various architecture styles and smart engineering. All these monuments were painted beautifully with natural colours, some of them are still visible on the stone chariot or at the ceiling of the temples and Lotus Mahal.
Virupaksha temple in the Hampi Bazar is not far from the ruins but is not considered part of the ruins for the deity [Lord Shiva] is still worshipped today and is a prime spot on the pilgrimage route for the Hindu devotees. In fact this temple dates back to mid-7th century AD, many centuries before Vijayanagara empire came into being and is believed to  be functioning uninterruptedly ever since its inception.That makes this one of the oldest functioning temples in India. It is this temple and few others that have given the spiritual credence to Hampi.
But more than the ruins there is certain magic about Hampi even today that makes you feel relaxed and joyful as soon as you reach Hampi, be it Kamalapur where Karnataka Tourism Hotel is located or the long empty stretches of winding roads that lap you around like you are the last living being on earth or the huge uneven expanse strewn with rocks and boulders that almost give you a feeling of living in a prehistoric age or the river Tungabhadra flowing serenely through these open and wide rocky terrain, unmindful and unperturbed of all the human activities surrounding it.  Almost all areas have certain local legend related to some act in the Ramayana giving the extra edge of sacredness to this place. All these slowly build up a feeling that you are and you have been, even before you existed, part of this whole space that is undivided from the infinite since the creation of the magical Universe.

Tungabhadra and Anjandri Hill

While geologically this area is said to have existed long before thee great Himalaya came into being, it is the local stories, connecting mythological characters and Gods in Ramayana and Purana, that have lent solidity to the overwhelming sense of eternity attached to this place.

pilgrim climbing the anjandri hill

I was climbing the stairs of Anjanadri hill, while my mind was weaving those thoughts. Beside the hoardes of monkeys jumping all around, we had a group of pilgrims cheering all of us in Bhojpuri Hindi. Their continuous chant of Hanuman chalisa, it appeared, also caught the imagination of the fellow young Russian travellers.  "Jai Baj-rang-wa-li", one of them greeted us in broken accent. Some of the girls even wore red bindi on their forehead. Religiosity, as it appears, is an innate human nature.

Pampa Sarovar

Northern bank of Tungabhadra
 Anegundi, at the northern bank of river Tungabhadra, is at a distance of 5 km from the historical site of Hampi. It is locally believed to be the ancient monkey kingdom of KISHKINDHA described in  Ramayana. Anjanadri hill, the birth place of Lord Hanuman, and the mountain Rishimuka are the other places near Anegundi associated with Ramayana. It takes around 500 steps to reach the temple of Anjana devi, the mother of Lord Hanuman, at the top of Anjaneya Parvat, which is probably the highest hillock in the vicinity. Hordes of devotees from UP and Bihar throng this temple everyday for whom there is no bigger truth than the faith that their beloved immortal God Lord Hanuman was born on this hill. Ruins of Hampi are insignificant artefacts of history for most of them which can be corroborated by the fact that most of them hardly visit the ruins of Hampi. Not surprisingly the priests in this temple are from North India and entire sermon is made in Hindi instead of Kannada. Warm welcome from the priests and unrestricted access to the temple complex is another aspect that nobody fails to notice.

Devotees getting down at Pampa Sarovar

Pampa Sarovara and Laxmi Temple at the bank of it are another hotspot for Hindu devotees. Local mythology tells you that Pampa Sarovara is the place where Hanuman rested on his way to Himalayas. It is one among the five holy Sarovars installed by Brahma where Shiva and Parvati are worshipped, as per the local legends. The others being Manasarovar (In Tibet), Bindu Sarovar and Narayan Sarovar in Gujarat and Pushkar Sarovar in Rajasthan. Pampa devi is none other than Goddess Parvati, the consort of Lord Shiva, asserts the local version of mythology.
 The story goes like this: Pampa, born here, wanted to marry Lord Shiva, who was deep in meditation on the Hemakuta hill, which is right opposite the Virupaksha temple. She realized that meditation was the only way she could win him, and proceeded to do so, on the banks of a lake, on the other side of the river, where the present Pampa Sarovara is located. Finally, Shiva became aware of her and being satisfied with her devotion he agreed to marry her. The location where they were married is where the Virupaksha temple stands today. Even today, villagers from the surrounding areas prefer to marry within the temple premises, considering it an auspicious beginning to their married life.
It is believed that the name Hampi is local dialect translation [Apabharmsa] from Pampa. If you are mesmerised by this story, there are more waiting for you. There is Chintamani temple complex- cave where Rama met Sugreeva and Hanuman for the first time and the place from where he shot and killed Vali. Locals even identify the place where legendary fight between Sugrib and Bali in Ramayana happened before Bali was assasinated by Ram.
Then there is Sabari cave, where Sabari waited till Ram came to bless her. As per Ramayana, princess Sabari was cursed to a stone by an angry saint. Later the saint told her that only Lord Rama can lift the veil of curse and told her to wait till he comes there and touches her. Sabari got free from the curse only when Rama visited her.

But not all are myth. Anegundi played a major role in Bhakti movement particularly to the school of Madhvacharya during 14th century. Nava Brindavana (Nine Brindavana), situated on a small island on the Tungabhadra still stands as a proof to that statement. Navabrindavanam has the Samadhis (tombs) of nine saints, followers of Madhvacharya, and predecessors of Sri Raghavendra.
Myths, histories and vast, ancient landscape of Hampi fill every moment of your existence so much so that even after three days of stay we felt sad to leave this place.
Reaching and Staying there

ancient Rock-strewn landscape of Hampi

Nearest Ralhead is Hospet. Nearest Bus station also is Hospet. Even for those who like to drive to Hampi, Hospet is the highway junction. Hospet is connected to National road network through NH13. From Hospet, Hampi is around 15 kms and while there are many hotels in Hospet, the place that I would recommend is Karnataka Tourism Hotel in Hampi. Though many things cane be improved, the  hospitality still is hearwarming. I visited this place after almost 10 years and haven't felt any love lost! The large sprawling garden and open restaurant are few of the luxuries that very few can match in the entire area. For the backpackers, particularly Europeans, there are quite a few budget-places in Anegundi where they serve the European breakfast too.
In brief

Sunset at Hampi

It is undeniable that Hampi enjoys more than fair share of attention of tourists coming to Karnataka but it is also true that Hampi is one of the rarest tourist spots in India to have such a mix of historical,  mythological and spiritual heritage to offer to its visitors.
More photos