Could this gamble be game changer in 2015?

IDC released 2014Q3 report on smartphone OS market. It shows Microsoft Windows firmly in the 3rd place in 2014.

People may have forgotten how and from where it rose to this position, but future business historians will remember this as another successful strategy maneuver from Microsoft.

Techcrunch in a recent article observed that Microsoft went public in March, 1986, barely 5 months after it released Windows OS [Nov, 1985].

In the S-1, Mircosoft's IPO document, Microsoft's future valuation of Windows software is fascinating!

"In November 1985, Microsoft began shipping Microsoft Windows, a graphical operating environment which runs on the Microsoft MS-DOS operating system. As an extension of MS-DOS, Microsoft Windows manages such hardware as the keyboard, screen, and printer. This product allows new applications programs to present themselves in a standard and graphical manner that is independent of video or other output devices. Microsoft is encouraging independent software developers to create applications programs which will take advantage of Microsoft Windows graphical user interface features. Lotus Development recently announced its intent to pursue the development of applications products that will run on Windows. Microsoft’s own new applications software will be based on Microsoft Windows. It is too early in the life of Microsoft Windows to determine what level of acceptance it will attain in the marketplace."

Well one hardly needs anything to be said further to that statement today. Windows not only redefined PC market, Microsoft ensured that Windows' success is leveraged across all emerging computing platform markets, Server, Gaming Console and so on. Before Apple's second wave of growth, people never saw any serious threat to Windows for any foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, Windows never was a serious choice in embedded OS market. Microsoft also appeared to be hesitant, if not reluctant, player in smaller platform segment. Partly to that, all ventures [windows CE for example] from Microsoft in mobile segment were seen as weak, if not tentative. Mobile Phone market was largely proprietary and with Nokia leading the pack, no one saw any incentive to break the status quo.  That hesitation turned into a strategy blind-spot soon when Apple turned the table with iPhone. Microsoft needed something very badly to cover the lost space. For quite some time, beside Apple, there was no serious dominating player in the smartphone market.

Then Google brought Android and Samsung brought Android-based Galaxy series of phones. Android started changing the smartphone market in the same way Linux did to the PC market earlier. Microsoft did not appear to have any play. Some people even started writing eulogy for Microsoft.

Obvious reasons were

1. Linux is eating into Microsoft's PC OS market share.
2. VMware started almost monopolizing the server virtualization market
3. Cloud was fast becoming credible alternative to private data centre for the  enterprises.
4. iPhone and iPad redefined smartphone and tablet market and Microsoft's mobile OS had no play at all.

With slow PC/Laptop growth and exponential smartphone growth, Microsoft needed a serious game changer in the smartphone segment. When no one thought of any future for Microsoft, Microsoft almost created coup-d'etat with Nokia. Fast devaluation of Nokia's valuation and Elop's crucial decision of adopting windows for Nokia phone gave Windows the life-saving chance that it needed so badly.

IDC's recent report seem to indicate that the strategy maneuver has worked for Microsoft. Gartner's press release also indicate the same trend. Microsoft is back to OS game. Below charts from Gartner speak for themselves:

Table1
Worldwide Device Shipments by Operating System in Mature Markets (Thousands of Units)

Operating System	2013	2014	2015
Android	266,701	313,529	337,791
IOS/Mac OS	157,273	167,787	182,564
Windows	138,312	141,977	149,128
Others	100,633	48,130	29,352
Total	662,920	671,424	698,835

Shipments include mobile phones, ultramobiles (including tablets) and PCs

Source: Gartner (October 2014) 

Table 2
Worldwide Device Shipments by Operating System in Emerging Markets (Thousands of Units)

Operating System	2013	2014	2015
Android	632,517	928,135	1,117,860
Windows	187,474	194,091	221,804
IOS/Mac OS	78,928	95,304	112,647
Others	772,562	520,605	383,914
Total	1,671,480	1,738,135	1,836,225

Shipments include mobile phones, ultramobiles (including tablets) and PCs

Source: Gartner (October 2014)

Cost for the gamble

Leaving the development cost of windows 8, let's just look at the cost Microsoft incurred in acquiring Nokia phones:

Microsoft paid to Nokia: $7.2 billion

Adoption cost: $1 billion out of the Nokia operation

Microsoft posted an operating loss of $692 million this July. It claims to stop losses by June, 2016. 

How do the Microsoft shareholders look at this? This Business Today report says, Microsoft shares hit new 14-year highs just after quarterly result announcement, and were up by 1.1 per cent at $45.33.

Microsoft is charting new territory

Microsoft recently launched Lumia 535. They dropped Nokia logo in the new phone. Not sure how many are observant that Microsoft is charting a new path here.  More than 91% of Windows mobile phone sales bring revenue directly to Microsoft. In a recent report, IDC projects that Windows Phone will account for $7.8 billion (about 2%) of the $382.9 billion in revenue expected to be generated by the smartphone market in 2014. Although windows share in smartphone market is not high, the fact that almost all windows phone sales happen from Microsoft now, this gamble has already created success for Microsoft. Here Microsoft is charting Apple path [hardware + software] unlike what they did in 1985. Although Microsoft has treaded complete hardware and software path before with Xbox, smartphone market is likely to pose a lot harder challenge since there are too many dominant players and market is too nuanced already. But if there is anything to cheer about, it is that Windows has moved from PC-only market to PC plus Tablet plus smartphone market.

Riskless Capitalism and India

Raghuram Rajan, the RBI governor, said some large borrowers in India are enjoying 'riskless capitalism' and are responsible for making banks’ credit profile unhealthy. These big clients were in effect becoming ‘freeloaders’ in the banking system and the taxpayers and honest borrowers end up paying the price for losses suffered by state-run banks due to bad loans taken by these big borrowers.
Mr. Rajan is not the first to use the term Riskless Capitalism. Kennedy in a different context, used the term 'Riskless Capitalism to explain how a new financial policy framework is going to create universal "Security for Capitalists and consumers, workers and employers, corporates and farmers" and in that process, "it did not seek to abandon capitalism but transform it into a relatively 'riskless capitalism'". He was facing a different problem then and he felt the policies would smoothen the rough edge of capitalism. But as it appeared, the 'riskless capitalism' helps the businesses more than common tax payers. In his book, Great wars and great leaders, Ralph Raico observes,"Businesses welcomed the government intrusions which brought them guaranteed profits, a 'riskless capitalism'" in the context of government policies in the aftermath of WW-I.

Capital by nature is asymmetric and in any closed or semi-open system, capitalists tend to take greater advantage of government policies because larger the capital, the bigger is the promise of returns and greater is the influence on the flow of capital, which is controlled by banking system of the nation.  In any case, the goal of the manager of capital is to reduce risks on the capital growth and by design he will prefer the risk-free growth opportunities. Or he will find avenues to pass the risk downstream, if he cannot nullify the entire risk. In our system, that creates the huge NPA, for public banking systems, which banks de-risk by increasing capital borrowing cost for small borrowers or penalizing the small borrowers. [read Business Today report SBI chasing smaller borrowers to control rising bad loans]
 Mr. Rajan seem to be resonating that in his speech yesterday in Anand, Gujarat, "A large borrower, whose loan has turned bad, should not be “lionised as a captain of industry, but justly chastised as a freeloader on the hardworking people of this country,” Dr. Rajan said in cases of any stress, the promoter threatened to run an enterprise to the ground, asking the government, banks and regulators to make necessary concessions to keep it afloat. We have seen perpetually sickening of Jute industries in Bengal and how the promoters de-risked their capital at the cost of BIFR and workers there.
 “We have to ask if our system of credit is healthy. Unfortunately, the answer is that it is not. The sanctity of the debt contract has been continuously eroded in recent years, not by the small borrower, but by the large borrower,” Dr. Rajan said. In scathing remarks on the misuse of the system by the large borrowers, Dr. Rajan said taxpayers and honest borrowers end up paying the price due to the excesses committed by large borrowers by way of losses to state-run banks and high pricing of loans.

“If the enterprise regains health, the promoter retains all the upside, forgetting the help he got from the government or the banks — after all, banks should be happy they got some of their money back!

“What I am warning against is the uneven sharing of risks and returns in enterprise, against all contractual norms established the world over — where promoters have a class of ‘super’ equity which retains all the upside in good times and very little of the downside in bad times,” Dr. Rajan said. 

NPA of Indian Banks

[source Reserve Bank of India] 
In average India's public banks are running with more than 3% NPA [the figure for SBI is 4.42%]. Just for a comparison same ratio for Bank of America and HSBC are 0.21% and 1.77% respectively.
This article provides a nice infographics on top Borrowers in Indian banking system.

Wharton report predicts doom of IT sector by 2033

A yet to be published Wharton study by Colin Ward predicts that by 2033 IT sector will transition to decline phase by 2033. He applied asset pricing to find future valuation of IT sector. His model indicates that growth of IT sector is already in the transition phase and transition to end roughly by 2033. He cliams to "develop a new method that puts structure on financial market data to forecast economic outcomes."

"I apply it to study the IT sector's transition to its long-run share in the US economy, along with its implications for future growth. Future average annual productivity growth is predicted to fall to 52bps from the 87bps recorded over 1974-2012, due to intensifying IT sector competition and decreasing returns to employing IT. My median estimate indicates the transition ends in 2033. I estimate these numbers by building an asset pricing model that endogenously links economy-wide growth to IT sector innovation governed by the sector's market valuation.", He elaborates.
   The paper is accessible at

 https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/11770278/JMP_Ward_ITrevolution.pdf
If you find the paper little too technical and finance-oriented for your interest, there is another way of testing the hypothesis. We could try to extrapolate the future based on the patterns that we see now. The way we see the IT industry today was unimaginable in 1974, though people consider 1974-80 to be the beginning of the growth of the industry. The industry experienced the growth
in massive scale during 1995-1999 and most of that rode on banking industry's fear of Y2K glitch. Once that crest passed, the industry saw first massive slump in 2001. Very few imagined that trough will come so soon after crest, because it was never seen before. Industrial revolution lasted for a long time before people saw the economy decline.
   People accepted dot-com bust to be credible explanation although banking industry's IT budget also showed fast contraction right after year 2000. Traditionally IT consumption always showed sharp increase or decline as an effect of overall economy's growth/collapse.
One must not miss the fact IT needs are not fueled by direct consumption from the consumers [which has direct impact on real-estate, manufacturing, luxury and cosmetics items, electronic equipment etc] but by those industries that serve
the consumers and those industries increased IT budget as a response to threats such as probable banking software malfunction due to Y2000 round up or pressure from business consolidation.Business consolidation happens organically in any industry when growth slows down and large players invest in IT to leverage information availability. Thus a bank upgrades its back-end software and IT hardware as a need to remain competitive [it improves scale of operation, information flow and customer response] when it faces slow growth. Retail
industry upgrades its CRM and analytics software in order to capitalize faster the retained data of its consumer base. Now once they upgrade (spend in IT) their IT setup, next upgrade would happen only if they outgrow their present capacity.
                 There is another dimension to it. Given that the IT providers themselves are coming up with innovations faster that brings down the overall cost of IT in order to remain competitive, the value of IT erodes faster. For example setting up a CRM for a retail chain is lot cheaper today when compared to that a decade back. The solution today is lot more open, agile and powerful compared to what they used to get a decade back.
Compare this with any other Industry e.g. automobile or nuclear reactor. The price of automobile such as Toyota Corolla has consistently gone up over the years and so has the cost of a nuclear reactor. Unfortunately same cannot be said about IT produces.
 Also over the last few years, industries witnessed fast transition from in-house IT setup to outsourced IT setup. Salesforce has consolidated CRM of many of its clients who earlier had their own CRM solutions. Salesforce thus brought down the consolidated IT expenditure of its clients to a fraction of what they used to spend together. And it is clear that this transition is going to be faster in next 10 years as SAAS become mature and more secure. IT budget will shrink sharply once the transition reaches 70-80% of total market. Mainstream industries will not buy IT product, they will simply consume IT as service, just like they consume electricity or water. Net effect? Growth disappears!
Colin's model gives us another tool to reach the same conclusion, albeit with far more analytical rigour.

Male/Female %Male / %Female

More often we are oblivious of the misconception and dogmas we carry around. Alan Turing, the famous computer scientist who formalized the concept of algorithm and broke WWII German code Enigma was incarcerated and cursed to ignominious humiliation for his homosexual affinity by the authority, would have died happy had he not killed himself prematurely. The society that he belonged to, took few more decades to learn and accept that homosexuality is not a social crime. Since that time, science has advanced a lot. Big data analytics with massive computational power enabled the scientist to analyze extremely large demographic  and biological data with spectacular ease. Human Genome along with many other species are decoded entirely. Many of the irregularities which used to be considered as nature's whims earlier, are understood to be simply a statistical norm. How real, for example, is the male/female difference? Do they have completely different design?
When does a foetus become male or female? Medical science tells us that a human embryo starts showing first sign of transformation to boy/girl at around 9th week in the womb. In other words an embryo assumes its sexual orientation quite early in its journey. So, one could safely assume that male/female boundary is quite distinct, right?
Actually no.
We already know that there is a sizable human population who do not abide by this clear boundaries, for whom the boundary is less physical and more social. The data shows  that 1 out of every 1600 newborns are intersexuals and 1 out of every 100 new born is ambiguous w.r.t sex. Calculate the number for present world population and you will appreciate that data better.
Biological evidences aside, how about human mind? Does it have innate male/female traits?
There are popular [and pseudo-scientific] beliefs that male and female differences are irreconcilable. How often have you heard "all men are alike" or "Even God can't read women's mind!"? There are no reasons that millions of copies of 'Men from Mars, Women from Venus' are sold worldwide, right?
Well latest researches indicate otherwise. Neuroscience tells us that male/female is a continuum rather than well-separated set of traits. In this paper [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3176412/] the author tells us that "For most documented sex differences in the brain, however, and in particular in regions involved in behavior, emotion, and cognition, there is a considerable overlap between the distributions of the two sexes."
It asserts further that, "Current data on the effects of environmental events on brain structure strongly suggest that heterogeneity in the “male/female” type of an individual’s brain characteristics is the rule, rather than the exception. Specifically, prenatal and postnatal manipulations (e.g., exposing dams to stress, maternal separation, rearing conditions, early handling, acute and chronic postnatal stress, prenatal exposure to psychoactive drugs, anesthesia) have been shown in rats to reverse, abolish, create, or exaggerate sex differences in brain characteristics.." The paper concludes therefore that for us, 'different individuals will have different combinations of “male” and “female” brain characteristics'. 

Top graph shows distinct
non-overlap in physical strength
while the bottom graph
shows striking overlap in
psychological trait of
assertiveness[source: Huffington Post]

Another recent research published in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology also tells us that when it comes to psychological traits, there is a whole lot more overlap than there is difference [see the bottom graph in picture]. [source: Huffington Post]. 
Brains, therefore, appear to be neither “male” nor “female,” they are “intersex”.
So next time, you try to blame the other sex, think twice!
And in case you are curious to know what percentage your brain is male/female, try this BBC quiz: 

Sleeponomics

A century ago, Thomas Edison commented, "Sleep is a criminal waste of time and a heritage from our cave days."  Considering in average 1/3 rd of the day one spends in sleep, you would sleep away around 25 years by the time you reach 75. So it does look like that sleep is serious waste of time especially in the present globalized world where business runs 24 hours a day. Many of the techies and IT managers are likely to agree to Mr. Edison at least some time, if not all the time. Especially when the deadline is in the near-horizon, many would wish all the sleep away.
There are also those who boasts of managing life with only a few hours of sleep. I recently met a person, in his forties, recuperating in the neurological ward of Fortis hospital after suffering a mid stroke. He said there are some people whose strength is working for long hours, 14-18 hours to be precise and he considers himself in that category. Question is if  sleep is really wasteful for your well-being or it is necessary for your well-being. If you are intrigued by the question you may as well read till the end.

One article in Nature tells us that "20% of American adults reported being so sleepy during the day that it interferes with their daily activities at least a few days per week, and a frightening 17% reported falling asleep while driving within the last year. The risk of sleep-related accidents is compounded by the fact that people are unable to judge the likelihood that they will fall asleep, and by the related misconception that falling asleep is a slow process. In fact, sleep-deprived people commonly enter so-called 'microsleep' states, where they fall asleep for brief episodes lasting several seconds, during which time they are perceptually 'blind', often unaware that they have fallen asleep.
Accidents aside, one likely consequence of sleep deprivation is memory impairment. It was shown several years ago that a particular type of memory consolidation—improvement after practicing a visual discrimination task—does not occur until many hours after practice has ended. Using cleverly designed sleep deprivation experiments, researchers extend this result by demonstrating an absolute requirement for sleep within 30 hours of training. Importantly, it was the occurrence of sleep and not the simple passage of time that was critical."

There are other researches that tell us that 'within the brain, a whole raft of genes have been shown to be turned on only during sleep, and those genes are associated with restoration and metabolic pathways'. Russel Foster, a neurologists and sleep researcher, explains in a recent TED talk that  it is not just the laying down of memory and recalling it, our ability to come up with novel solutions to complex problems is hugely enhanced by a night of sleep. "In fact, it has been estimated to give us a threefold advantage. Sleeping at night enhances our creativity. And what seems to be going on is that, in the brain, those neural connections that are important, those synaptic connections that are important, are linked and strengthened, while those that are less important tend to fade away and be less important."

In a just published article in Nature, researchers found that "fear extinction may be selectively enhanced during sleep, even without re-exposure to the feared stimulus itself." So sleep is crucial to help you beat your everyday paranoia and other neuroses.
 Orfeu Marcello Buxton, another neurologist told in NYTimes that in his research he found that sleep restriction or disruption increases obesity and diabetes risk, by decreasing insulin secretion, increasing blood glucose levels slowing metabolism (the study is here).

So it is kind of clear that lack of adequate sleep is bad economics for you, not only in long term but also in short term. So much so that there is more than $20 billion business[CNN Money report, 2006] came up to capitalize on the derivative of lack of sleep of high-earning people. In other words you increase your liability manifold compared to what you gain by curtailing your sleep.

But how much sleep is adequate for you?
Dr. Russel Foster tells you that you must listen to your body. If you are feeling irritated, tired or dull in the morning for no reasons, you probably are sleep-deprived and more you continue in that state, more you reduce your mental productivity as well as your overall well-being.

US loves GM crops!

If you are living in US, you are most likely consuming GM [Genetically Modified] product, either with your full knowledge or not. As per the US Department of Agriculture, about 90% of all Corns, Soybeans produced in US are GM crops.[ latest report from USDA].
Should you be concerned? Well, there is a good number of those who believe you should be. Here is one article that warns that viral genes in GM crops are likely to promote diseases. There are many other reports that warn you about serious pitfalls of consuming GM crops. Fact is we still do not have enough data to know for sure how genetically modified strains interact with our genes. With less convincing studies that prove otherwise, you are more likely taking a path that is going to impact all your future generations, genetically. At present GM production address two different problems that farmers face: 1. insect resistance and 2. large scale crop epidemic resistance more famously known as Herbicide-tolerance. But there is a large-population who are extremely wary of the long-term effects of these genetic modifications. After all, human have many genes in common with the plants that are being genetically modified and we do not know how the modified genes will impact continuous genetic variations happening in human cells.
    Perhaps you want to know how other countries are dealing with GM crops. Unlike in US, Monsanto, the largest GM crops producer has taken decision to not pursue with producing GM crops in Europe [reports Telegraph, UK]. Fact is European Regulatory Authorities have been slow in providing approval to GM products. Perhaps they have taken cognizance to rising public opinion against GM crops in Europe. Public resistance to GM crops are also quite visible in India [GM brinjal was banned in India]. But somehow US appears to be unaffected by all these commotions. Surely the decision makers think GM crops are good for US. Some would argue that US traditionally favours new technological advancement and GM after all is new technology. But skeptics are not so sure if it is love for technology or love for dollars! Lot of dollars are already spent in US. Huge corporate investments are made in US. Many argue that corporate lobbyists are actively promoting GM everywhere to ensure that investment is protected.
This article provides an account of the money being spent in lobbying in US for GM crops.There are many other reports that claim that GM crops are aggressively being promoted in African and other countries. For instance, this Reuters report claims that U.S. tax dollars promote Monsanto's GMO crops overseas. Ghana apparently accuses US for pushing GM crops to their land, as per the recent report from The Guardian.
There is little doubt that however vocal the opposition/activism against GM be, GM is going to stay here and that is all the more reason for you to be aware of the state of the affair so that you can choose what is right for you.
This article below provides detailed account of GM crops in the context of India for those who like to explore more.

GM crops-Part 1: The truth about genetically modified foods
GM crops-Part2: The myth about food security
GM crops-Part3: The economics of genetically modified food

Finally, Nokia and Elop story reached logical end

Two and half years ago, when Stephen Elop was brought in to lead Nokia, many asked the question openly if Elop was the trojan horse for Microsoft. Though Elop publicly denied that charge at that time, Nokia's journey for last two and half years with him at the helm, has however reached the conclusion that many feared with announcement that Microsoft is buying Nokia mobile business at $7.2 billion and Stephen Elop returning to Microsoft. With Steve Ballmer's announcement of retirement, people are making simple arithmetic with Stephen Elop. We, humans, are good in drawing sweeping conclusion based on only 2-3 data points and this is also no exception to that rule. Truth, as often is found to lie somewhere in between.
The legacy of Elop in Nokia is hardly anything to be jealous about. Since he came on board, Nokia's valuation came down by 85%, the market space where Nokia was world leader, saw Nokia receding ground to Samsung and other OEMs. The smartphone space which was the key element driving Nokia to cannibalize Symbiosis and embrace Windows OS, decidedly went with Apple's iOS and Google's Android. Now did anyone know for sure that these were going to happen when Elop came on board?
Social psychologists use the term Fundamental Attribution Error to our natural bias to attribute personal disposition instead of situational artifacts as a cause of certain eventuality. We feel higher satisfaction if we can find someone to hold responsible for an event that we do not like. So we feel doubly eager to attribute Nokia's ill-fate to Elop. Psychologists also tell us that that bias changes when one is involved and is answerable for the course of event. In the scenario where the person is involved, it is often observed that he/she attributes the cause of events to the situational changes instead of his/her own decisions. That means, Stephen Elop will attribute the cause of the present state of Nokia to the changing situations!
Rational minds would ask, "Was the decision taken only by Elop? Would Nokia board agree to allow Elop to take the decision if they knew they had better alternatives [other than going windows way] two and half years back?"
 Given that the board members had access to all the information that Elop had, it is reasonable to assume that each member individually vetted all the different options in their personal capacity before agreeing to Elop's solution. What Elop most likely have done at that time is that he influenced these members in evaluating the potentials and risks that each option provided. He might have been successful in creating fear for future failure in sticking to existing course. He might have projected the value of Windows and Microsoft alliance much higher than it actually was. But ownership of the course steering lies with all the executive members of Nokia board.
Once the decision was taken, it was clear which path Nokia is heading. Mounting accumulated losses, market pressure, competition from Apple, Samsung and other Android-based smartphone OEMs took Nokia further away from its root and towards further grip of Microsoft.
But did Elop think that bringing Nokia mobile to Microsoft could make him a strong candidate for Ballmer's successor? Even if he did, how much could he bet that course of events will take the shape the way it happened when he took the plunge 2.5 years back? Nobody realistically could be sure. At most, he could do is play his cards the way he played and hope things will eventually take him to the coveted post that he might have been eying for.
Now how does this change for Microsoft? Would this bring the hardware success that eluded Microsoft and Ballmer all along? Well, fact is Nokia Lumia series with windows 8 has become a success. It is capturing market quite fast, providing a credible alternative to Android based smartphones, even at lower cost point. Merger in fact positions Lumia at stronger ground with control on both smartphone hardware and OS. It will give Lumia leverage to bring price of smartphone further down and present a credible competition to Android-based low cost phones in all emerging markets where the real smartphone battle has to be fought and won.
It will also help Microsoft to boost its advertising business where the battle with Google is being fought, by making advertisement more personalized for the users by integrating smartphone's on-device data with skydrive [Microsoft Cloud] and Outlook [Microsoft email]. But for this to work, Microsoft's existing strong culture of internal competition [and therefore wastage of creative bandwidth in political rivalry] must change and find a way to work like collaborative set of engineering/business functions. Lumia hardware engineering must be allowed to function independently of Windows software division for them to build on each other's strength. But if this strategy succeeds, Microsoft will have evolved itself for the new generation of users and move to a new position of strength.
So, good luck to Mr. Elop and RIP Nokia mobile [that's a bit hurtful for someone who always used Nokia handsets]!
The next news to watch is who is going to buy Blackberry/RIM!