Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Smartphone beyond 2013

If you are checking this blog for some time, I would guess that you are aware of tremendous growth of smartphone as a market segment and probably are curious like me about what the future holds for this nice little device that have become indispensable part of our daily existence. I would bet that there are many among us who almost wear the device 24x7, well may be I should exclude the time when we sleep. The point is remaining connected all the time has become a necessary aspect of our life so much so, many would feel extreme mental trauma at the mere thought of losing the device. For handset vendors this is a place that anyone would dream to be in.
Monthly smartphone OS market-share chart: source comScore research
Billions of customers, Trillions of opportunities to know the users and create avenues to make money. Apple showed the way to others about how to create revenue opportunities by not only selling device but from everyday use of the phone. Google and Microsoft are in the race now. At present device selling earns most revenue for Apple but eventually as the evolution of device reaches mature stage, it will be the apps and other cloud services that Apple provide that become larger revenue avenue for Apple. Google and Microsoft are preparing themselves for those days and chances are high that Google and Microsoft's revenue share will be higher than Apple's, since there will be more smartphones that will use Android [and Windows likely] than iOS. For a quick reference on relative market growth so far for smartphone OS like Android, iOS, Windows, see the latest chart from comScore.

Does this mean that future innovations in smartphones are going to to be driven by OS vendors?

To answer the question, let us look at Nokia's published mobile strategy after their OS strategy shifted to Windows OS. It says clearly that while Nokia will depend on Microsoft for OS, Nokia's R&D will focus more on Services (Cloud-aware Apps development) and Mobile Phone hardware platform to deliver an enriching experience to the users. The strategy is somewhat similar to what Samsung is following of late, though Samsung is focusing more on phone platform at present. In fact Nokia ans Samsung are telling us that the hardware platform is going to dominate the innovation space for smartphone in the near future. We will see, faster and more powerful processor [Qualcomm's 1 GHz snapdragon processor already found popularity], powerful graphics processors, sleek form factor, brighter and sharper display, flexible touch screen, sharper camera, faster data with LTE and next-generation Wi-Fi, more sensors to gather data about user's surrounding and emotional presence. Though there will not be perpetual energy source, battery life between two recharges will increase 10 times in next couple of years given that two large market segments viz automobile and smartphone/tablets are pushing the battery technology for faster innovation.
Google Glas
But real winners will be those who will combine all these components into an encompassing whole delivering an experience so rich that users will identify herself/himself with the phone. Wearable phones may be more available with the advent of Google Glass but some believe that differentiating smartphone innovations are going to be more service-oriented after the initial phase. Quoting CNET, Mark Rolston, the creative director for Frog Design, thinks that smartphones are just about out of evolutionary advances. Sure, form factors and materials might alter as manufacturers grasp for differentiating design, but in terms of innovative leaps, Rolston says, "we're at the end of gross innovation for smartphones." CNET observes, Rolston and other future thinkers who study the mobile space conclude, smartphones will become increasingly impactful in interacting with our surrounding world, but more as one smaller piece of a much large, interconnected puzzle abuzz with data transfer and information.Your activity will be captured and analyzed from second to second. Relevant information will be distilled by powerful analytics engine running on compute cloud and feed it back to your phone which will guide you in dealing with your surroundings in real-time basis. Gaming for example, definitely will be lot more richer and many of your usual chores of the day will be gamified. Gamification deals about changing a certain experience in a way that is more fun, more entertaining for the users. If you are marathon enthusiast, a typical gaming app will track your progress, provide real-time feedback, feed you about marathon events in your locality, help you to define targets and guide you progress towards them, help you to identify your competitions and show you in real-time how well or badly you are faring against them. The idea is to help you live in your personalized world as much as possible and future smartphone/tablets would be the gadgets to deliver that experience.

Further Clicks: 

Stuff Article: http://www.stuff.tv/news/phone/imho/this-is-the-smartphone-of-the-future
Concept phone: http://itechfuture.com/concept-of-a-smartphone-morephone/
CNET news article: http://www.cnet.com/8301-17918_1-57578982-85/smartphone-innovation-where-were-going-next-smartphones-unlocked/
Google glass page at Google+: https://plus.google.com/+projectglass/posts 

Friday, 19 April 2013

Accelerating 4G

Months ago, I conjectured that given the growth 4G technology and slow customer adoption of 3G, India may jump to 4G sooner. While Indian operators are slowly ramping up their 4G network deployment, 4G is not likely to see strong growth before 2014. But showing all signs that 4G is gaining strength faster, Verizon reported that they are banking on 4G data growth to fuel their revenue growth in a saturated subscriber-base of US.
In its recently published report, Verizon said that almost 50% of its all present data traffic is on its 4G LTE services, covering more than 260 million Americans. Verizon also said that it now had a total of 21.6 million LTE-enabled devices on its network, a rise of 23.3% on last year.
That shows clear sign of 4G acceleration. However it does not tell us whether that growth is happening at the cost of Wi-Fi or CDMA/3G. In US, Wi-Fi is more ubiquitous compared to other developed countries. So data growth could be at the expense of CDMA/3G or it could be simply complementing Wi-Fi hotspots. However from its report, it appears that Verizon is converting its CDMA data connections to LTE. Verizon may start supporting voLTE this year. That would initiate complete switchover to 4G for its subscribers. AT&T and Sprint are not too far behind. Both have already started 4G data service and fast expanding 4G coverage in more US cities [ source: techradar].
Europe's scenario is little complex with each country at different phase of 3G/4G adoption. Telecoms.com lists plan from various networks in Europe for launching 4G service. Europe's recessive economic condiiton has slowed down 4G adoption a little. The question whether it is more profitable to continue with 3G or it makes better economic sense to transition to 4G, is going to linger with European operators this year.  A recent study from Arthur D. Little and BNP Paribas seems to warn that European operators with present inclination to keep 3G and LTE data tariff same, may not see growth in next 3 years. Now if the operators increase LTE tariff, it is bound to have a slow-down on overall adoption rate of LTE in Europe. Since Economics always has the upper hand, European operators may focus on near-term profitability and instead of committing a full-scale overhaul from 3G to 4G, they most likely will take a staggered approach.
 Japan on the other hand has traditionally been first-adopter in wireless telecom space. DoCoMo launched its 3G network in Japan when 3GPP were still debating about the 3G standard. In fact 3G proliferated lot faster in Japan compared to any other developed country. So to understand whether 4G is really being considered as replacement for 3G, we need to look at Japan. 
In a clear signal that Japan may transition to 4G sooner than anticipated, CN reports that 
 • Japan’s total mobile infrastructure (2G, 3G, 4G) market surged 78% in 2012, to $3.9 billion, owing to a strong LTE push fueled by NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SoftBank Mobile and
3G declined 11% in Japan in 2012

"LTE revenue in Japan soared 188% and will keep its momentum this year, driven by accelerated rollouts and the increasing willingness of service providers to shut down 3G,” notes Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics at Infonetics Research.

ABIresearch, another reputed research firm, projected LTE data traffic to grow by 200% this year. "4G LTE traffic is accelerating, with a growth rate of 207% in 2013 compared to 99% for 3G traffic.", it said. In India. Reliance announced yesterday that it received Govt''s permission to start testing of its LTE network including voLTE service.  And if one has to go by the local buzz, Airtel and Vodaphone are planning full voLTE launch by early next year.

So it looks like that US and Japan are going to see strong wireless data growth over LTE this year. Europe will see slow transition from 3G to 4G. China and India will most likely see comprehensive data and voice growth over LTE by early 2014.

Monday, 15 April 2013

How India influences mobile handset innovation

Innovation in any Industry needs three crucial elements, buyers' support, Industry growth and competition. If buyers do not show interest in new products, innovation loses its spirit. Market growth is the necessary incentive for Industry to bring new products. Competition is the guiding force that shapes up the Innovation for the new products. 
From another perspective, Innovation takes the industry to future and future must be enticing enough so that players from present try their best to adopt innovation to move to future. Apple saw the future of it when it took up the job to innovate for a smartphone. The future where people crave to have an Apple smartphone was very enticing for Apple to invest in smartphone development back in 2003.
   Indian market at present brings certain crucial elements which are truly enticing for the handset innovators, looking at future growth.
First, Indian market brings world's second largest mobile user base. As per the recently published data, India has around 700 million active customers, more than double the US mobile user-base with a population penetration of around 6%.  The chart below from Mobithinking provides a good comparativee view of the top 5 mobile markets.
Table 1: The 100 million club: the top 10 mobile markets by number of subscriptions
Country Mobile subscriptions
in millions
Population
in millions
(source: World bank)
% of population 3G/4G subscriptn
in millions
% of popu-
lation
Sources
(subs; 3G subs)
Last update
World 5,981 6,973.7 85.8% 1,593.9 23% ITU
Informa WCIS
End 2011
Dec 2012
China 1,091.9 1,344.1 81.2% 212 15.8% China Mobile;
China Unicom;
China Telecom
Nov 2012
India Active: 699; total: 906.6 1241 73.1% 70.6 6% TRAI
Informa WCIS
September 2012
Dec 2012
United States 321.7 311.6 103.3% 256.0 81% CTIA
Informa WCIS
June 2012
Dec 2012
Indonesia 260 242.3 107.3% 47.6 19% BuddeComm
Informa WCIS
May 2012
Dec 2012
Brazil 259.3 196.7 131.8% 65.5 33.3% Anatel/Teleco
Anatel/Teleco
Oct 2012

Mobithinking also tells us that globally smartphone and tablet shipment are expected to grow between 2012 and 2016 while sells for other types of mobile devices will decrease. Broad categories (of phones) that are being used here are are smartphones, tablets [top tier] and feature phones [tier 2].  As per their collated data, there were 1.7 billion mobile phones sold in 2012, which was similar to the number sold in 2011.  Most of the analysts pegged Year over-year growth at around 1.2-1.9%, which is construed to be flat-growth. However, segment-wise growth may vary considerably.
As per Mobithinking, around 59 percent of handsets sold in 2012 were feature-phones. In other words feature-phones took the top-spot in terms of number of units sold. 
Let us now look at data for Indian market, Cyber Media Research reports in CY 2012, March 2013 release that India registered 221.6 million mobile handset shipments for CY (January-December) 2012 which is around 20.8% Y-oY growth. Their chart below shows that feature-phones sold most. So Indian market is no exception to global trend.
Smartphones sold lot less compared to feature phones but the important part is that it is the fastest growing segment, with a whopping 36% Y-o-Y growth. Smartphone sells are projected to grow at the cost of featurephone segment in next few years.


Table 2. India Mobile Handsets Market: CY 2012 versus CY 2011 (in terms of unit shipments)
Form Factor
Shipments
(CY 2011)
Shipments
(CY 2012)
Year-on-Year Growth, CY 2012 over CY 2011 (%)
Half Year-on-Half Year Growth, 2H 2012 over 1H 2012 (%)
Mobile Handsets
183.4
221.6
20.8%
16.4%
Featurephones
172.2
206.4
19.9%
11.3%
Smartphones
11.2
15.2
35.7%
75.2%
Source: CMR’s India Mobile Handsets Market Review, CY 2012, March 2013 release

 

Top  3 Mobile Handset vendors

Top 3-5 players in most Industry define the trend. However in handset market the top -5 list is not a very stable list. Table -3 is a chart from Gartner and it illustrates some interesting points. It shows that except Apple and Samsung all vendors in fact lost their market share last year. It also shows that Blackberry/RIM and Sony did not figure in top-5 list. Another interesting point to note is that three out of top-5 spots are taken by Asian vendors [Samsung and LG are Korean vendors while ZTE is Chinese].

Table 3: Top Five Mobile Phone Vendors Globally, Shipments, and Market Share Calendar Year 2012 (Units in Millions)

Vendor
2012 Unit Shipments
2012 Market Share
2011 Unit

Shipments
2011 Market Share
Year-over-Year Change
1. Samsung
406.0
23.4%
330.9
19.3%
22.7%
2. Nokia
335.6
19.3%
416.9
24.3%
-19.5%
3. Apple
135.9
7.8%
93.1
5.4%
46.0%
4. ZTE
65.0
3.7%
69.5
4.1%
-6.5%
5. LG
55.9
3.2%
88.1
5.1%
-36.5%
Others
737.5
42.6%
716.8
41.8%
2.9%
Total
1735.9
100.0%
1715.3
100.0%
1.2%
Source: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, January 24, 2013

  Now let's look at the Indian market. As per the Cyber Media Research, the top 3 vendors are:

Table 4. India Mobile Handsets Market: Leading Players, CY 2012 (% of unit shipments)
Player
Rank – Overall
Share – Overall
(% of unit shipments)
Rank – Featurephones segment
Share – Featurephones segment
(% of unit shipments of featurephones)
Nokia
#1
21.8%
#1
22.5%
Samsung
#2
13.7%
#2
11.5%
Micromax
#3
6.6%
#3
6.5%
Source: CMR’s India Mobile Handsets Market Review, CY 2012, March 2013 release

A curious addition to the above list is Micromax, an Indian vendor. I don't know why but they did not publish top-5 list but if they did, I suspect Karbonn, another Indian player would figure in the list. It is important to note that all the internationally well-known vendors like Apple, Sony, LG, HTC, Blackberry/RIM also operate in Indian market beside Nokia and Samsung but except Nokia, Samsung, Sony and LG, most have their participation limited in Smartphone category. As far as featurephones are concerned, Nokia traditionally had huge presence with almost 70-80% market share in India. They lost shares of the market to Samsung largely but also to Micromax, Karbonn and other small players in India.  This page provides a quite comprehensive list of Indian brands in the handset market.

Influence on handset innovations

Commenting on the results, Faisal Kawoosa, Lead Analyst, CMR Telecoms Practice said, “Although we see a huge market ‘hype’ around smartphones, the fact remains that the India Mobile
source: Business Today
Handsets market is still dominated by shipments of feature-phones. On the other hand smartphone shipments are growing fast. This indicates India is still a ‘new phone’ market, where feature-phones contribute to the bulk of shipments compared to replacements or upgrades.”
“This propensity on the part of Indian subscribers of mobile telephony services to purchase large numbers of feature-phones has paved the way for the establishment of Indian brands, which are largely focused on this segment.” Some interesting features that these phones provide but generally are not available in established brands are, support for multiple SIMs in single handset, powerful speakers and strong LED that can double up as torch in night.
One should not forget that none of the Indian vendors have manufacturing base in India. Here innovation to a large extent is about identifying the market segment, finding the right source of unbranded phones, packaging and creating a light-weight distribution network. One of the important USP of these handset vendors is cost-advantage. They provide similar set of features available in top-branded phones at almost 5 times cheaper price. Their margins are lower but they compensate that with high volume of sales. The fact that most of the Indian vendors source their phones from China, Taiwan or in Indonesia, is an indicator how thread-bare is their operational cost.

Buyer pressure, thus, has created a large innovation opportunity for low-cost feature phones and smartphones. Top vendors like Samsung and Nokia recognized the opportunity quite correctly and brought many low-cost feature-phones in the market in last two years. In other words they have decided to compete with small brands and unbranded mobile sets in India
This is a very important change in business strategy from what they follow in developed countries. They took this path because they very well know that these low-cost vendors once successful in feature-phones will eventually attack them in the higher-price smartphone segments. Unless they learn to compete at the low-cost segment, they stand to lose the entire segments.
The question is how does it influence global handset innovation. Innovation has primarily two enduring impacts: 1. it helps industry find technology alternatives that are more viable to the Industry and 2. it also pushes the overall cost of development for a product on a downward slope. 
Once the likes of Nokia and Samsung figure a way to bring down cost to remain competitive in Indian market, they will apply the learning to bring down their cost of development for higher-end products e.g. Smartphones too. First effect will be higher profit margin for higher-end products but in the long run it will bring down average cost of smartphones due to competition between themselves.
At present highest end smartphones like Blackberry Z10, Sony experia's latest model Z, Apple iPhone 5, Samsung Galaxy Note II, Nokia's most powerful Lumia model cost between Rs 34,000 - 44,000 [Blackberry Z10 costs Rs 43,000], in India. These price in absolute terms are way too high compared to US or European market. Undoubtedly this has created a space and an opportunity for innovation, for cheaper smartphones here.
Chinese manufacturers, recognizing the opportunity have formally created a consortium which will operate in the Indian market directly and help the Chinese manufacturers establish their brand-names in India. The Hindu on reports, "A consortium of Chinese mobile makers are planning a quiet entry into India with the help of a start-up, which would set up over 200 sales and service centres for nearly 50 different manufacturers. The start-up, a company called AndroidGuruz, plans to set up sales and experience zones, giving the Chinese companies a foothold into the Indian market." 
 After the Chinese consortium finds a foothold here, they will force all these players into a price-war. But I would argue that intense competition will eventually make Nokia and Samsung the winners globally since the feature-phone experience would have taught them the tricks of cost-leadership and with their larger scale of operation, they would make the last call, unless of course, Mr. Elop decides to be adventurous again!

Report Sources  for further digging

Cyber media research report [http://cmrindia.com/more-than-221-million-mobile-handsets-shipped-in-india-during-cy-2012-a-y-o-y-growth-of-20-8-nokia-retains-overall-leadership/]

IDC report [http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS23916413#.UWqx_6ODmSp]

Mobithinking Report [http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats/a]

 Indian brands in handset market: [http://www.knowyourmobile.in/products/2315/top-10-desi-mobile-phones]

Business Today article: Top Indian handset makers changing tack to take on MNCs [http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/top-indian-handset-makers-changing-tack-to-take-on-mncs/1/193224.html]

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

4G phones in India

As Indian operators are slowly but surely laying out 4G network, they face one specific challenge which we identified earlier. There are few 4G [LTE-TDD] based phones in the market. Most of the western phone vendors have started supporting LTE-FDD looking at European and US market. Indian operators like Reliance and Airtel realized that unlike GSM and 3G phones, they cannot depend on the market for the supply of 4G phones. They have to provide their consumers 4G phone that will work with their 4G network and that too at affordable cost. So, each operator is tying up with specific phone vendors to provide 4G phone for their consumers and predictably all the phone vendors that are being tied up, so far, are Asian. While Airtel tied up with ZTE and Huawei earlier, Reliance is tying up with Samsung to provide the 4G phones for its consumers. Mukesh Ambani's RIL announced today that it tied up with Samsung to bring branded 4G phones at Rs 5500. Albeit none of these phones support VoLTE [please check my previous post for more details on VoLTE] as yet.
ZTE's android based 4G phone. specs here
It is interesting that while western phone makers are lethargic to bring out LTE-TDD phones, all Asian phone makers are scampering to launch more 4G phones this year.
Last week in Mobile World Congress, China Mobile showcased 4 LTE-TDD phones, from brands such as HTC, LG, Huawei and ZTE[news report]
We should expect more announcement on 4G phones and deployment in the upcoming 4G World conference in India, scheduled on April at Gurgaon. You can check their website for more updates at http://www.4gworldindia.com/
Incidentally Videocon took a different path for 4G. While big operators in India picked up Chinese vendors for Equipment, Videocon tied up with Nokia Siemens for 4G-based broadband. "We intend to engage Nokia Siemens Networks as our Technology partner for our 4G network roll-out in the country Videocon Mobile Services Director and CEO Arvind Bali said in a statement. He said that going forward, the company will look to provide data service (internet) experience including Video Chat, Mobile TV, HD (high definition) TV content, digital video broadcasting etc,over its 4G network. [news report]

Thursday, 28 February 2013

Nokia and Huawei in Mobile World Congress

Mobile World Congress, being held in Barcelona from 24th Feb till today [check this page for the latest report from BBC], is decidedly one of the most prestigious and sought after annual congregation for both technologists and Industrialists across the world. Every leading vendor brings its latest inventions here be it a technology proof or a product, to make its presence known to the world. While there were different themes, I was particularly interested in how the leading vendors are positioning their products in respect to LTE (4G) and more curiously how they factor emerging markets like India and China in their strategy. 
As for LTE adoption is concerned, MWC, 2013 has very little to showcase. LTE still is a high-speed data service for the most handset vendors. I instead tried to find what Nokia people are talking about.
Nokia, as always, an interesting component in cellular wireless Industry.  Not the least because of the way it brought itself down from its unique leadership position in the worldwide handset market with windows strategy. In the changed market scenario, when most of its competitors from GSM days [before 3G], like Motorola, Sony-Ericsson have given up the race for the leading handset makers, Nokia still is trying its best to remain relevant. As per the recent survey, the top two positions in the handset vendors table are well-secured by Apple and Samsung. The top two OS in the race for smartphone OS are clearly Android and iOS. The dominance of Android and iOS is so overwhelming [check Apple and Google duopoly] that Blackberry positions itself aspiring for No.3 positions [CEO Thorsten Heins famously told reporters at the company's BlackBerry Jam developer event that BlackBerry 10 has a "clear shot at being the Number three platform in the market."- source: Neowin.]. Nokia's Windows-phone strategy is at best a limping response to the challenge, albeit slowly pulling some revenues for Nokia.
 So I was curious what Mr. Elop would say in the MWC. Mr. Elop predictably sounded both ambitious and optimistic in numbers of interviews with virtually all media representatives in MWC. You can watch him below in the Bloomberg interview [courtesy Bloomberg
Mr. Elop thinks Lumia strategy has started to pay dividends and his winning strategy is to make Lumia platform accessible to low-cost mobile market such as India. He appears to have claimed that Nokia  would be the first in the market to make advanced features, that are only available in high-end smartphones, also available for cost-conscious customers. He mentioned about Nokia's Asha series of phone in India in one such interview.      
 Anyone who has been following the industry may beg to disagree with him. Fact is it was Samsung who first adopted the strategy of creating one platform for all its phones and tablets and then executed it to finesse. Once Samsung Galaxy proven itself as a good competition for high-end smartphone and tablet segment, Samsung aggressively pursued cost-conscious market by launching numbers of low-end galaxy-based phones, delivering popular features like wireless LAN, Facebook app, dual-SIM, touch phone to multitudes of India at affordable price [Trust me Samsung did not pay me to write this!]. Nokia's Asha was at best a delayed response to Samsung. The question is whether same strategy with Lumia will deliver bigger success for Nokia. There is no doubt that notwithstanding the loss of reputation of Nokia as the most sturdy phone maker in last two years, Nokia still is a force in the Indian handset market.
Huawei Ascend P2: courtesy PC Advisor
  I, however, was particularly intrigued the way Huawei has been slowly becoming a serious brand in the handset market and cranking up newer products. In fact Huawei claimed to have brought out world's fastest smartphone with the launch of Ascend P2 which is its latest LTE-based Android smartphone making it position against both Samsung Galaxy and Nokia Lumia. [ you can read complete review from PC advisor here]. Silently Huawei has got its new LTE chipsets as well as brought out a new platform over Android following Samsung. Huawei in fact has been pushing its low-cost CDMA phones to India for quite some time and if one has to go by the buzz, people like them; they are cheap, light, sturdy and provide nice UI. I would expect Huawei to be lot more aggressive in Indian market when LTE takes the dominant position in India.
Indian Mobile market is one of the most attractive segment for the handset vendors; almost all of them agree that ignoring 250+ million strong customer base in India would be a strategic suicide. Fortunately beside being cost-competitive, vendors hardly need any large customization to their phones unlike Chinese or Japanese market. All that the Indian consumers want are proven technology and a sturdy and nice-looking phone. As far as LTE is concerned, as I mentioned in my last post, the technology  needs another year to mature to replace the 2G for voice. So Apple, Blackberry and Nokia can afford to be slow with LTE -based product release but there is no doubt that in about two years when 4G replaces both 2G and 3G, chinese Huawei and ZTE will figure prominently in world-wide handset vendors table.
My previous posts on Nokia handset strategy:

Tuesday, 19 February 2013

India one step closer to pan-India 4G adoption


Reuter reports that Indian Government has taken a decision this Monday to allow all the wireless broadband airwave holders to support voice over 4G by paying a one time fee of $306 million. This will remove the last regulatory hurdle to deploy LTE as the technology for both data and voice. Three large players, Reliance, Vodaphone and Airtel are expected to go full-steam in this year with LTE. For voice however, technology is still in the catch-up mode. Ideally, with LTE, the bearer protocol for the voice was expected to be voice over LTE. But voice over LTE still has some distance to cross before the technology can mature to substitute existing circuit-switched voice service provided by GSM. This is a case where market is moving faster than the technology.  For countries like India, who do not have large technology R&D investment in LTE or 3G wireless, market driving technology is in fact a boon. India does not need to follow a particular country (e.g. USA) or a technology, it has the freedom and latitude to follow the best of the breed. Fact is although GSMA adopted voice over LTE as the bearer protocol service for LTE technology in 2010, world's first ever commercial deployment of voice over LTE happened only in last quarter of 2012 when SK Telecom of South Korea launched the service with Ericsson and LG as the technology partner in September, 2012 [news announcement].
Operators in US and Europe have been trying with alternatives to voice over LTE as an interim solution but none of them match the spectral efficiency that VoLTE can provide. Heavyreading article provides a good summary on the alternatives that operators are trying for providing voice service over LTE. I have pasted their summary table here for those who are hard-pressed for time.
 As one can imagine, lack of clear choice impacts not only the network readiness but the handsets too. Huawei spokesperson stated last year that the aim is to bring voLTE enabled handset by 2013. Operators definitely want a single IP-based voice delivery solution, for LTE, which can simultaneously deliver voice, video and data so that it becomes credible deterrent against existing VoIP service like Skype. So there is no doubt that all the handset manufacturers would focus their resources to bring out fully voLTE capable handsets but challenge of interworking with multiple evolving technologies can be a serious hurdle. The hurdle can be somewhat reduced if the handset manufacturers work together. For a service to function smoothly, handsets from different manufacturers must agree on a single common procedure for voice call transfer, or voice/video call switch or roaming service. Some of them are part of the standard, but many are design artefacts which handset manufacturers must settle between themselves. For the first generation voLTE smartphones [from LG or ZTE] call switch quality appear to be satisfatory but power consumption appear to be on higher side [source]. Fallout of all these is, we may have to wait till the end of 2013, to see fully functional voLTE handsets from leading handset manufacturers like Samsung, Nokia or Sony-Ericsson. Indian operators have another hurdle. Indian operators have adopted LTE-TDD, as opposed to LTE-FDD that European operators adopted, following China and other Asian countries [check my previous posts]. This may mean that Indian operators may have to depend on Huawei or ZTE to bring the first set of handsets for Indian LTE voice/video consumers.Incidentally Airtel last year launched LTE multimode based Huawei smartphone, in India, that actually use 3G CS fallback alternative for voice calls [first alternative in the table]. In other words they do not support VoLTE yet.
So what does all these mean to you? If you are a technology enthusiast looking forward to buy a 4G smartphone, it means that you perhaps would like to wait till the end of the year when voLTE enabled handsets will be launched. Otherwise you are quite likely to replace your handset with another 4G handset in 2014.

Monday, 21 January 2013

Towards the next personal evolution

The simple fact that this piece is posted in 2013 and you are reading this sentence tells that we both have survived 2012 and its doomsday psychosis.
Congratulations!
Now let's buckle up and prepare ourselves for the set of neuroses that 2013 has brought for you.Well that statement may not be very accurate. Fact is 2013 is just a number that identifies certain number of days that our present civilization started counting from the 1st of this January (for historical reasons) and the neuroses are our gift to ourselves to make living that period more meaningful! After all, life is all about crossing milestones, achieving targets, isn't it? Now that running behind targets, goals, ambitions, has its cost, which we keep paying, most certainly, remaining unblissfully unaware of it.
  1.  Ravi, an employee in a large IT company, is finding his office environment too political for him to survive. But he carries a large EMI so he cannot leave his job till he finds another job. But market is bad and he lives almost every moment with an unconscious fear, fear of losing job. He has taken to heavy drinking; he drinks almost every evening, six days a week. His kids complain to their mom about their Dad, his wife complains to him that he has become more inaccessible to his family. Ravi accepts that his interaction with family is lot less that what should be, but he simply cannot help. They do not know that drinking is his only escape from the constant fear that he lives with, every sleepless minute of his day.
  2.  Anusha is a bright young working girl. She was promoted to a manager last year and got a new boss a couple of months after assuming new role. For last few months, she lives under a constant agony. She is almost sure that her new boss does not like her much and wants to replace her with one of his cronies. She thinks that he is after her career and is always trying to do something to show her in bad light. Every Friday she has a meeting with him and her heart starts besting faster before she enters the meeting room. Whatever they discuss in the meeting turns up negative for her. The dejected feeling remains with her long after the meeting ends so much so that she prefers to stay in her room during the weekends. She loves her job but she gets very stressed whenever she thinks about her boss. Rarely there is a night for her that passes without a nightmare. In fact she often wakes up in the night sweating profusely.
  3. Murali is a VP in a mid-size marketing firm. Last year, he barely reached his target and this year he is not even sure if he will meet last year's target. If he cannot, he knows it would be end of his .....He refuses to think what will happen if he cannot.  In this market there are very, very few positions in the market particularly at his level and there are always too many contenders,  the younger, the more preferred. These days he hardly manages to get sound sleep. He lives with a constant fear everyday and he cannot even dare to think what he is afraid of.
All these scenarii [names are unimportant, in any case they are fictitious names], above, have one thing common, everyone of them is suffering from high neuroticism; there is a constant tension that each of them is living with. Tension, we know, is an effect of two opposing forces on the subject. A rope, that is pulled by two warring parties in a Tug-of-War game experiences a tension which in language of physics, is proportional to the non-differential components of the forces applied on it in two opposing direction [Differential component will pull the rope to one direction, likely to be winning team's direction]. But for Ravi, Anusha or Murali, or for that matter, you, where are the two opposing forces coming from? They are being generated by one's own mind. When one lives in two different realities at the same time, one inevitably feels the tension. One reality is created by one's desires, one's ambition and the other is the effect of the fear generated by one's reading of the situation and the environment one is living in.

 Quoting Dr. C. George Boeree, an eminent psychologist, "Generally, neurosis means poor ability to adapt to ones environment, an inability to change one’s life patterns, and the inability to develop a richer, more complex, more satisfying personality.

The first point to note is that there are predisposing physiological conditions, for the most part hereditary.  Most obvious is the temperament trait (or traits) referred to as neuroticism or emotional instability.  Other traits may also contribute, such as extremely high or low conscientiousness.  It may be that any inherited trait, when present in the extreme, makes the person more liable to develop neurotic problems.
The second point is that one’s culture, upbringing, education, and learning in general may prepare one to deal with the stresses of life, or not.  These factors may also serve to override any predisposing physiological conditions, or to exacerbate them.
The third point concerns the triggering stressors in people’s lives which lead to the various emotional, behavioral, and cognitive symptoms of neurosis.  These stressors can be understood as consisting of situations of uncertainly and confusion, usually involving interpersonal relationships, that overwhelm the person’s capacities, learned and/or inherited, to cope with those situations.
Basically, we deal with the world by using our previously acquired knowledge of the world, in coordination with our inherited capacities, to solve the problems presented to us as efficiently as possible.  When we are up to the task, our emotional responses are kept to within tolerable limits.  When we are not up to the task, we experience anxiety.  This anxiety may develop into other emotional responses as well, depending on the details of the problem, our inherited traits, and our learned patterns of response to problematic situations.
When we experience repeated occasions of stress and anxiety, we begin to develop patterns of behavior and cognition designed to avoid or otherwise mitigate the problem, such as vigilance, escape behaviors, and defensive thinking.  These may develop into an array of attitudes which themselves produce anxiety, anger, sadness, etc."
Interesting aspect is those who have complete faith in oneself or on the conjecture that everything in this world is happening as per a divine plan and is orchestrated by as one would call, God almighty, hardly goes through this trauma of neuroticism. There are plenty of examples where those who have overcome impossible hurdles or impossible targets against overwhelming odds demonstrated supreme faith in their abilities or God. Only those who do not fall in either category, is seen to be victim of neurosis.
Carl Jung observed many years ago, "[Contemporary man] is blind to the fact that, with all his rationality and efficiency, he is possessed by "powers" that are beyond his control. His gods and demons have not disappeared at all; they have merely got new names. They keep him on the run with restlessness, vague apprehensions, psychological complications, an insatiable need for pills, alcohol, tobacco, food – and, above all, a large array of neuroses."
So, it appears that rationality, an extraordinary gift to mankind, which is central to all the scientific and technological progress that the humankind achieved so far, inflicts equally difficult challenges to a man's (woman's) existence. Rationality helps us to comprehend the world around us but it has its limitation on its capacity to absorb information. 21st Century with all its connectedness and hyperactive information flow, continuously bombards on our senses but our limited capacity of information processing creates incomplete description of the world around us. Our emotion tries to bridge that gap by creating a belief system or a system of faith which filters out any information that is incongruent to world-view of the mind. That in turn simplifies the reality but more importantly helps us to remain consistent in our thoughts and feelings. But if that belief system gets weakened by one's rationality what we are left with is a neurotic mind, a mind that has lost all the surety of its beliefs and faith. Is there a possibility that this mind will evolve into something better, something that is more advanced from the evolutionary perspective? Is there a possibility that this neuroticism can act as enabler for one's personal evolution?
What happens when a neurotic mind suddenly becomes aware of its own neuroticism? It is quite similar to when someone, who always criticizes about others' clothes and looks, suddenly becomes aware of his/her own grotesqueness. All pretenses fall, a solemn realization sinks in, the person evolves into different emotional being. That opens up the path to freedom from one's own neuroticism.
Not quite surprisingly it is similar to what Gautam Buddha taught 2600 years ago. Buddha told people, that one must accept the reality the way it is. Buddha called it living in suchness, tathata. The world is  just the way it is, it is perfect in the way, it is. The problem is rather in the way we interpret the reality; in terms of good and bad, desirable and undesirable, long and short, left and right, right and wrong, positive and negative, always brewing tension between the two opposites.  Reality however is not separable between two opposites. Just like there is no magnetic monopole, without 'wrong' there is no meaning to 'right', without 'right' there is no meaning of 'left' and vice versa.  We must learn to be conscious of the world that is created inside our head by our senses and emotions and know both factually and emotionally that the world that we carry inside our head is not the same as we interact with our senses every moment. Reality at any moment is far too rich and too complex to comprehend with our limited information processing capacity. As that understanding comes in, one slowly becomes aware of one's own neurosis and at that very moment the mind becomes ready for the next evolution. It sees the essential nature of its own self vis-a-vis others. It sees the same energy that once exploded with big-bang around 14 billion years ago (or 14 billion light-years away), manifesting itself now (or here) as the face of one's dearest person and also as the face of one's worst enemy.  In that it finds its own zen moments, the moments of true freedom, freedom from all ignorant differentiations, freedom from all futile and senseless attempts, to separate its own existence from the reality as a whole, the very seed of one's own neurosis.