Giant Ring of Black Holes

There are few times, a picture becomes so eloquent that it makes all subtexts entirely unnecessary. For decades, people spoke about blackholes but could not find a proof of their existence so much so that many astrophysicist openly expressed their doubts if blackholes at all exist!. Things changed after Stephen Hawking postulated about blackhole radiation and now with Chandra telescope, science has surpassed that barrier. Now almost every alternate day a blackhole source is getting discovered. But of all those pictures, this recent picture [mapped to recognizable colours] from NASA is a milestone by itself. This is the first time that we saw multiple blackholes in a single frame. Since I cannot copy the image here, I provided the link to the picture below.
Giant Ring of Black Holes
You simply cannot help but be awed by the great masterpiece of the Universe.

From a recent trip to K. Gudi Wilderness camp

Of all the Jungle Lodge Resorts that I visited, the one that occupies the highest recall value, is the B R Hills or K. Gudi wilderness camp. One reason could be that this is the only lodge that is well inside the forest. But it also could be that this camp has a character of its own and my unconscious self loves that. In fact many years back when I visited that camp last time I had an uncanny experience of looking into eyes of a big tusker from a distance of 20 feet on a full-moon night. It was one of those moments in life when one second becomes almost a lifetime!
Something in the back of my mind was craving for that experience and probably was pushing me for another visit. However, ten years is a long time and in this period of fast change even in my dream I could not expect  this place to remain unchanged. So I was expecting lot of changes, in fact this time I took a different route so that my mind cannot keep comparing with my previous experiences. However when I reached the place, the Maharaja bungalow and the layout brought back all the memories. Beside the forest appeared lot greener on the way, nothing major really changed about this place! I even was given the same parking place that I used ten years back! I was looking for some familiar face but the person who greeted us told that all staff changed one and half years back including the manager. I felt little sad, may be older too. We were allotted the Chamundi loghut and I must admit that the loghut was very comfortably designed, full with almost every amenities that you could ask for in that environment. There was a change though; last time it only had candle and lantern for night [ they wanted us to experience the wilderness as mush as possible, the manager said that time] but this time there were CFL bulbs decorating the rooms as well as common pathways. I guess this change was inevitable given that most of the guests come from very urban, cosmopolitan environment.
We proceeded for our late lunch and the we were told that there was a jeep starting the safari early and if we like we could join them. The incentive is they have jungle permit and therefore could take us little inside compared to other safari vehicles. We welcomed the offer and went for the vehicle. Ashish, our host and our guide greeted us warmly. He looked very young, most likely in his mid-twenties. Something about him told me that he is not just a guide or driver. In fact he appeared to be very different from the other staff in the resort. He had an easy fluency with both English and Hindi and an air of courteous self-confidence that is too urbane to ignore. He probably is a wild-life enthusiast who happens to be associated with this place, I thought.
He took us near a water-body after a long and winding drive; chances of spotting a leopard or a tiger are higher near a waterhole. We could see few spotted dears, sambars and birds on the way. While driving, he took shots of few birds and animals.and I was gleefully surprised to see that he was using a huge Canon 500mm prime telephoto lens that you expect only with a professional wildlife photographers. We waited near the waterhole but not of much luck though it did not bother me. The silent, densely green forest is itself an experience by itself. We came back to the camp well after sunset and I went back to the loghut to freshen up. The camp-fire has lost some glitz without the appetizing view of bar-barbecue. The person told that the smell of barbecued meat was a bit too enticing for the the wild animals and they had to stop that from last year.
It was during the dinner, that I was told that Ashish, our host for evening safari was actually the resort manager. Still it does not explain his above-average enthusiasm about wildlife photography, I thought. Soon I learned more and that was a Revelation! Ashish Abraham actually
is a graduate mechanical Engineer. He even joined a Tata concern but unlike many others he realized a bit sooner that his passion is wildlife and not a factory life and he would be happy with a job with Forest service. So he appeared for Indian Forest Service, cracked it and finally landed to BR Hills as the resort manager after completing the course. How inspiring! When people around are struggling day in and out to fit themselves in the square holes that their jobs demand and losing themselves every moment bit by bit, here is a young boy who showed the guts to stand out and follow his passion. It was delightful. It was reassuring. I felt young India is not lost. I felt Ashish is not alone; surely there are many more young Ashish out there, following their dreams, converting their passions into their professions. I suddenly felt more hopes for this country, a lot more than my cynical mind would allow!
C'est tout..Ah! not to forget,  do please take a look at Ashish's website, http://www.livingintothewild.com/  He has put many of his awesome shots there.

Like USA, India also is a land of immigrants!

Really, it is established after so many years that India too, like USA is a land of immigrants. My Keralite friend always told that they came from outside India but like you, I also did not believe him. But now we have Supreme Court judgment supporting his case. Quoting The Hindu of January 12, 2011, "If North America is predominantly made up of immigrants, India is largely a country of old immigrants, which explains its tremendous diversity. It follow that tolerance and equal respect for all communities and sects are an absolute imperative if we wish to keep India united. If it was believed at one time that Dravidians were the original inhabitants of India, that view has since been considerably modified. Now the generally accepted belief is that the pre-Dravidian aborigines, that is the ancestors of the present tribals or Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) were the original inhabitants. This is the thesis put forward in a judgment delivered on January 5, 2011 by a Supreme Court of India Bench comprising Justice Markandey Katju and Justice Gyan Sudha Misra."
So finally India is not any more the land of Aryans, Dravidians, Jats, Thakurs, Dalits, Punjabis, Marathis, Assamese, Malayalees, Bengalees, Kannadigas or even Tamils, as each of these communities like to believe. It follows therefore that we, part of a nine billion strong immigrant population live [though 'live' would be a gross understatement] in this country that was fondly named 'India' by some western rulers and governed by the the Constitution of India which is written by immigrants like us who again were inspired by another set of immigrants [in case you are wondering, Indian Constitution authors were heavily inspired by the Constitution of USA beside UK]!
How do you feel?! I know.. it feels like someone has pulled the nice carpet under your feet, no? Nothing, nothing is rightfully your ancestral property! We actually are enjoying the gracious hospitality of the people who we pushed to the fringe of this land! You must be feeling sorry for those of your friends who keep boasting of their heritage, their upper cast status. Really, there seems nothing original, nothing authentic about our sense of belonging. The very concept of India itself is imposed, created by the invaders; the heritage that we brag about is just an immigrant heritage, a lot like North American heritage, however unpalatable it is! And we have been fighting for these identifications, these narrow spheres of belongingness, for ages, which if we think carefully, are nothing but set of ideas, unquestioned, untested!
However there is one true sphere of belongingness that will always be there for each of us, whether immigrant, invader or aborigine and that is the sphere called humanity. And that is the only circle of identity that we truly can aspire to belong to for our entire life; that is the only sense of belongingness that is as real as our existence is and that is the only gift from nature that we can fall back when all ideologies fail; that is which can give the true meaning to each of our own individuality.
Rest are all false, unauthentic, prejudices!

Pledge to be yourself

Many years back I bought a track suite that had "Believe in yourself" written on the track. I loved that! I thought it is a good message to myself and others. Believing in one's capability gives one confidence and motivation to go ahead. I remember that I used to jog wearing  that track. Some people, little inquisitive, some times would try to read the letters on the track  while I walk/run. I would steal a glance of pride and quickly wear an air of indifference, as if I was a celebrity and quite used to people's attention!
But following the rule of nature, those letters faded away after many washes and I lost the motivation to wear the track. Many years went by after that. I forgot that entirely. But memory works in a strange way. As soon as I typed the title section, it brought back the memory associated with "believe..yourself". In other words it hashes "be yourself" and "believe.. yourself" to the same symbol. Now, I am trapped! Every time someone tells "Be", my memory is going to jump to "Believe"! I am now wondering, since most of the time I am not as relaxed (read lazy) as I am right now, if my semantic functioning also changes. Like all my "be" function gets juxtaposed with "believe" function when I am not aware of these small hash errors in the memory retrieve faculty of my brain. Thinking of it, I realize that I must be doing it all the time. Being is as natural, as harmonious as nature is, 'being' means functioning as the nature has designed you, as a necessary part of it. ...But I am afraid, I instead, apply my beliefs and try to be what I believe I should be!
How stupid of me! It is like making a step jump in the beginning of a complex derivation and reach altogether a different solution and claim the originality of the proof! ..I was feeling sad..very sad..and in my sadness I started looking around, hoping to find at least one more person with same predicament as mine. It is painful when you suddenly become aware of your shortcomings and only thing that consoles you is when you find there are others like you!
So I looked around..Ah..I did not need to go too far. The Prime minister believes in good governance but his govt. loathes transparency. Our Finance Minister swears by India's growth story but news report tells that highest number of farmers committed suicide in 2010 due to their financial insolvency. News report also tells that manufacturing sector grew by mere 3% last year. Not to forget that latest observation tells that while India's population continues its growth, the agricultural land cover is going down drastically year after year. How will the nation feed its burgeoning population tomorrow?
Since most my readers are IT professionals, I reckon we also could talk about Indian IT. Indian IT honchos believe they are the visionaries, while most IT companies live and swear by risk-free cheap IT services: India cannot even claim ten percent of the technological asset that China has created in last fifteen years. Neither the IT luminaries have an answer on how India will compete after 10 years from now. "Believe" problem is not limited to top of the pyramid as always is the case with any system. Many IT managers swear by six sigma and quality process but very few of them can claim of delivering a project as planned. Many IT engineers lament about poor job satisfaction but never tread the path of building something on their own...Ah! I felt a sense of relief.. I am not alone, whole system got deformed by operating from "believe"!
It seems fairly logical to think that our first step should be to delink ourselves from 'what we believe' and link to 'what we are'. A journey from 'believe' to 'be' must start with acceptance of what we are, collectively and individually. A foundation of  honest and candid assessment of what we are would help us to recognize the malformations and build a healthy future for next generations. So let's pledge to 'be', simply and fearlessly! From this moment, let's start operating from 'are/am' than 'should' or 'ought'. Let's accept, rather than hide, every shortcoming in us with courage and grace. Let's build a transparent but integrated 'me' first. A transparent and healthy system can only be built by authentic and transparent individual 'me's. Let that be the pledge for this new decade!

Online Adverisement, Google Android and You!

We all know that Google and Yahoo showed us how to make money from online advertising. Just for the starter, 2010 Q1 recorded highest ever first quarter revenue from online advertising in US [read this]. In fact if you look at Google's result, Google's unaudited Q1 revenue [mostly online advertising] is shown to be $6.7 billion which is 27% higher than the Q1 revenue of last year. So, I guess it is safe to assume that online advertising has arrived and much money is to be made in the coming years. Question is what does it mean for you and me? Before we get there we need to understand how the online advertising works and what role you as individual play.
Online advertising works very differently than conventional advertising viz. advertising in print media and TV. Both print and TV media are non-interactive which means once the advertisement is in place, there is no direct feedback mechanism to assess how much additional business it generated. Of course there is mechanism such as TRP rating or customer survey to gauge how well the advertisement was received but that is far more indirect and passive approach compared what is possible with online advertisement.
Google and others are educating the general advertisers about this and brought the concept of pay per click which is automatically counted by the software and therefore, is expected be a lot more transparent to the advertisers. Fact that every user has an online profile, one can use that to customize the advertisement that would suit individual's requirement providing much better chance of the advertisement to make an impact on you as the consumer. I can go on, but I guess you got the gist. Just to understand what we are talking about, online advertising market is growing at a CAGR of 28% approximately in India. It is quite obvious that this growth is happening at the cost of conventional media. So what is so unique about this, right?
Well, the point is, advertising business is going through an inflection point now. In next five years new technology will take up a major share of advertising revenue worldwide and like every other technology inflection point, this also will change the game and top players of game i.e. advertising.
And this is what Google is looking forward to. Note that Google already has reached a run-rate of approx $23 billion / year of revenue and more than 95% of their revenue is coming only from advertisement. That means they are uniquely positioned to take advantage of large growth in online advertising.
A basic requirement for the success of online advertising is its ubiquity and reach of internet. And both requirements are best served when internet is available at mobile phone. Think how frequently you use mobile phone compared to your desktop or laptop. The cellphone is almost an extension of your existence today and what can be better than having a control of that very device of your own? Imagine if the advertiser knows everything that you like consciously, every place that you frequent, every little weakness that you identify with, what power that advertiser would wield upon you! And if somehow all those can be controlled by a single corporation, what power that corporation can have! It is evident why all market surveys project a steep growth of mobile online advertising in the next few years to come. With 3G and 4G, the wireless operators have already created the necessary infrastructure for ubiquitous, high-speed mobile internet. The mobile OS is the last frontier of the war-zone. Microsoft, Symbian have been looking at this opportunity for a very long time but as it is happens, the latest entrant, Google seem to be changing the game with Android. If you believe half of the buzz and market survey, Android is fast picking up as the preferred vendor-independent OS for smartphones, Handset players ranging from Motorola to Taiwanese HTC, all are bringing new product with Android OS. Many are predicting that Android is going to be the leader among all mobile OS in the market very soon.
So how would that help Google? Imagine Android as the Windows of the future mobile world and add to it the fact that your mobile knows a lot about you [your contacts, your calling patterns, your browsing patterns, your financial details, probably] and in fact is the constant companion of yours. Using these information on the real-time basis one can accurately predict what you need at a certain point. Imagine that you discovered that your bathroom tap is leaking and before you become frustrated your cell provides you local plumber's number and other details. Wouldn't you appreciate? Or it is Friday morning and you are thinking where to take your girlfriend this evening and you get a flash message on your cell about the events happening at places that you like to go! Is that feasible? Of course, it is! It is highly possible that all those information that your cell knows, the OS, in your cellphone, starts sending to a server continuously sometimes with your consent and may be sometimes without your consent. Good things like the instances that I described can be done using an intelligent software, running on powerful servers, that mines through your data in real-time remotely. But it also has its disadvantage. Your privacy is the first item on the block that carries the risk to be taken on hostage! If you believe I am being paranoid, do kindly read the following article on android strategy [http://paidcontent.org/article/419-androids-secret-sauce-googles-little-known-advertising-rev-share-deals-/]

It is you who is the end target for advertising and with the advanced technology of online advertising and mobile phone, you are at the most vulnerable position, especially if you are in countries like India where the protection of privacy is the most poorly understood [and therefore one of the least respected] topic. That means you alone are the sole custodian of your privacy and therefore you should choose the gadgets and technology very carefully to control your exposure.

India & China : race against or race with?

This is my second blurb on the same topic after last post on GDP comparison; hopefully we will find something different this time. Having compared the GDP as a whole, let's look at the breakdown of GDP of both countries. The figures below show that china's GDP growth engine is different than that of India. While China shows tremendous growth at the Industry sector, India's growth hero is services sector. China's industrial production saw so much rise that it is seen as the one of largest exporter in Asia today. Compared to that India's growth is propelled by internal consumption [IT services contribute merely 5-6% to India's GDP]. North American companies are the first to recognize this pattern and take advantage thereof. How? In this decade, many of the large North American equipment manufacturers have moved their manufacturing base from US to China [beside Malayasia] and equal number of them moved their Backoffice processing service to India. In short, it is amply clear that US is seeing India and China complementing each other here.

Now let's look at China and India's export scenario. Here we have a graph of relative size of bilateral trade between two countries. India's export to China has been lower-value component like mineral ores, cotton yarn and fabrics whereas China's export to India is more oriented towards finished goods, like electronic machineries, toys, etc. China is taking advantage of its mass-scale production capacity. Evidently the trade-deficit is huge from India [presently it stands at $4 billion]. Something needs to be done and both the govts are aware and working towards it as stated  by Nirupama Rao during her last diplomatic visit to China. India needs to find some niche in high-value export but it has to be something very different than what China has been building its strength on. But I bet both the Govt would be interested to find the complementing position that being in loggerhead. None would ignore the growing business volume between two countries.

Percentage of working population is another factor that is considered huge infleuncing parameter for GDP growth. Japan's one of the problem is its large aged population. Compared to that both India and China have a large working-age population [look at the figure below]. That undoubtedly is one of the great advantage for India [within next 15 years, India will cross China's population] and will continue to be so for next 2 decades.

As a corollary to that, India's credit growth is going to explode. As per the following data, India's credit ratio is much lower compared to China [Indians are known to be conservative people]. In other words, as the economy grows, as more and more people become economically 'confident', they will push the growth of the economy and fact is both China and India have lot to gain by complementing each other than fighting each other. In other words, the way to go forward is to race with as opposed to race against, however we dislike the concept. The latest WTO session showed that both the country understand that aspect very well.

As per the Goldman Sach's projection, India and China combined will become the largest economy bloc by 2050 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC]. They claim that India is going to be 40 times bigger than its present size.

But a lot of it depends on how the governance play in next twenty years but let me keep it for future deliberation.

A starter's comparison of two fastest developing economies

Of late my preoccupation about India has been more than what usually had been. It had to manifest somewhere in my numerous free-postings! So here is the first post on that, bit long but hopefully not entirely useless.
India and China, the two fastest growing economy of the world as stated in many recent studies, is the most talked about economy of late. We, Indians like to compare India more with China and less with our other's neighbour, however our neighbours feel we act bigger than we are. We even see some studies which suggest that in a decades, Indian economy will, perhaps, surpass China's economy. These are very confusing to my unscholarly mind and I am sure it is for many others. Easy way, I reckon, would be to start with where we stand presently.
I have compiled some data that are easily available in the net. I have picked three countries for comparison for the GDP comparison.

Annual GDP - US [$14.1 trillion] , presently ranked 1st.
Annual GDP - China [$4.327 trillion ], presently ranked 3rd
Annual GDP -  India [$1.254 trillion ], presently ranked 13rd

GDP per capita - US [ $ 45200 per person per year (2008) ]  world ranking: 24
GDP per capita - China [ $ 3290 per person per year (2008) ] world ranking: 142
GDP per capita - India [$ 1060  per person per year (2008) ] world ranking: 186

Economy Growth Rate: +1.12% Y-Y [US], +9.05% Y-Y [China], +7.29% Y-Y [India]
China has already seen double digit growth of late but it is very unsustainable. Economist believe that both India and China will see a growth of around 7-9% for next few years [with China keeping higher than India], however there are some study groups who believe China's economic growth will slow down faster than India. Without that debate, it is quite obvious that China will continue to maintain the present gap in GDP for reasonable time. But the question is will it increase further. In any case our data so far makes amply clear that surpassing China's GDP is more of  wishful thinking than a carefully studied projection.
However, there are other factors to consider. A country's growth depends a lot on how the system works. We know China's system moves faster since it is centralized. But there are pitfalls too. Since there are no opposition voice really erring policy decisions would incur higher cost than they would in India. I am not saying anything new here. Intuitively a Govt run by electoral system is believed to be more resilient in facing the changes. However China can prove to be exception. On the other hand an electoral system typically decimates to lowest common capability. India's weakness is myopic regional politics, a small bunch controlling the power at the helm and a sloth and colonial execution system. And they show their impact in the nation's growth. A simple comparison can be startling.
 In 2010 UN report on poverty a benchmark of poverty-line is defined as people living below $1.25 a day. It has praised both China and India that they were able to reduce the level of poverty over the last 15 years but what it does not comment is China has surpassed the projection of 2015 by a large margin in 2005 whereas India lags by large magnitidue.
See for yourself: China's percentage of poor people [meeting the above criteria] was 84% in 1981, 60% in 1990 and reduced to mere 15.9% in 2005. Their target for 2015 is 30%. Similar figure for India is 60% in 1981, 51.3% in 1990 and 41.6% in 2005. Their target is 25.7% for 2015 which they most likely will not meet unless Govt does something very drastic.
The enormity of the challenge can be further appreciated if we look at population growth of the two countries. India's present population is 1.18 billion [2008] with an growth rate 1.44%. Similar figures for China are 1.31 billion [2008] and 0.6% which is less than half of India's rate. China's inflation is way lower than India. It is accepted fact that population growth is highest at the lower income group which makes them go further down. In other words unless the poor is included in India's growth story, India will remain what it is, merely a potential that is yet to deliver, let alone being recognised as 'super-power'.