Accelerating 4G

Months ago, I conjectured that given the growth 4G technology and slow customer adoption of 3G, India may jump to 4G sooner. While Indian operators are slowly ramping up their 4G network deployment, 4G is not likely to see strong growth before 2014. But showing all signs that 4G is gaining strength faster, Verizon reported that they are banking on 4G data growth to fuel their revenue growth in a saturated subscriber-base of US.
In its recently published report, Verizon said that almost 50% of its all present data traffic is on its 4G LTE services, covering more than 260 million Americans. Verizon also said that it now had a total of 21.6 million LTE-enabled devices on its network, a rise of 23.3% on last year.
That shows clear sign of 4G acceleration. However it does not tell us whether that growth is happening at the cost of Wi-Fi or CDMA/3G. In US, Wi-Fi is more ubiquitous compared to other developed countries. So data growth could be at the expense of CDMA/3G or it could be simply complementing Wi-Fi hotspots. However from its report, it appears that Verizon is converting its CDMA data connections to LTE. Verizon may start supporting voLTE this year. That would initiate complete switchover to 4G for its subscribers. AT&T and Sprint are not too far behind. Both have already started 4G data service and fast expanding 4G coverage in more US cities [ source: techradar].
Europe's scenario is little complex with each country at different phase of 3G/4G adoption. Telecoms.com lists plan from various networks in Europe for launching 4G service. Europe's recessive economic condiiton has slowed down 4G adoption a little. The question whether it is more profitable to continue with 3G or it makes better economic sense to transition to 4G, is going to linger with European operators this year.  A recent study from Arthur D. Little and BNP Paribas seems to warn that European operators with present inclination to keep 3G and LTE data tariff same, may not see growth in next 3 years. Now if the operators increase LTE tariff, it is bound to have a slow-down on overall adoption rate of LTE in Europe. Since Economics always has the upper hand, European operators may focus on near-term profitability and instead of committing a full-scale overhaul from 3G to 4G, they most likely will take a staggered approach.
 Japan on the other hand has traditionally been first-adopter in wireless telecom space. DoCoMo launched its 3G network in Japan when 3GPP were still debating about the 3G standard. In fact 3G proliferated lot faster in Japan compared to any other developed country. So to understand whether 4G is really being considered as replacement for 3G, we need to look at Japan. 
In a clear signal that Japan may transition to 4G sooner than anticipated, CN reports that 
 • Japan’s total mobile infrastructure (2G, 3G, 4G) market surged 78% in 2012, to $3.9 billion, owing to a strong LTE push fueled by NTT DOCOMO, KDDI, and SoftBank Mobile and
• 3G declined 11% in Japan in 2012

"LTE revenue in Japan soared 188% and will keep its momentum this year, driven by accelerated rollouts and the increasing willingness of service providers to shut down 3G,” notes Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile infrastructure and carrier economics at Infonetics Research.

ABIresearch, another reputed research firm, projected LTE data traffic to grow by 200% this year. "4G LTE traffic is accelerating, with a growth rate of 207% in 2013 compared to 99% for 3G traffic.", it said. In India. Reliance announced yesterday that it received Govt''s permission to start testing of its LTE network including voLTE service.  And if one has to go by the local buzz, Airtel and Vodaphone are planning full voLTE launch by early next year.

So it looks like that US and Japan are going to see strong wireless data growth over LTE this year. Europe will see slow transition from 3G to 4G. China and India will most likely see comprehensive data and voice growth over LTE by early 2014.